SV Sandhausen v VfR Aalen prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

SV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen VFR AALEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfR Aalen win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.582

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfR Aalen win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: VfR Aalen was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF SV Sandhausen v VfR Aalen
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was VfR Aalen win 34%)
45′A goal for VfR Aalen on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' SV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen
45′HALF-TIME SV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' VfR Aalen win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' VfR Aalen win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 40%)
46′SECOND HALF SV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen
61′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' VfR Aalen win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' VfR Aalen win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
89′We published VfR Aalen at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' VfR Aalen win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME SV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen
FTSV Sandhausen 0–1 VfR Aalen · VfR Aalen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with VfR Aalen just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Sandhausen 36%, draw 26%, VfR Aalen 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on SV Sandhausen v VfR AalenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

SV Sandhausen win36%

Draw26%

VfR Aalen win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

VenueHardtwaldstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Sandhausen

VfR Aalen

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	VfR Aalen	12	+11	24
7	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfr aalen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make VfR Aalen a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Sandhausen v VfR Aalen~~1.41 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 24~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Sandhausen win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
VfR Aalen win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
SV Sandhausen or draw	62%	–	–
SV Sandhausen clean sheet	24%	–	–
VfR Aalen clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.6 7.7 6.0 3.0 1 7.5 12.1 8.3 4.1 2 5.7 8.0 5.8 2.9 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Sandhausen down, VfR Aalen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,675 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

SV Sandhausen at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). VfR Aalen away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for SV Sandhausen, 1.46 for VfR Aalen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept

SV SANDHAUSEN

WDWDWW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

VFR AALEN

DLWWWW0–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	12	+11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	+11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	+6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	−3	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	12	+2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	−4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	−2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	−2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	−11	11
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	−5	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	−13	6