SSV Ulm 1846 v FC 08 Homburg prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SSV Ulm 1846DrawFC 08 Homburg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC 08 Homburg 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC 08 Homburg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SSV Ulm 1846 34%, draw 26%, FC 08 Homburg 41%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on SSV Ulm 1846 v FC 08 HomburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SSV Ulm 1846 win34%

Draw26%

FC 08 Homburg win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

VenueDonaustadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SSV Ulm 1846

FC 08 Homburg

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc 08 homburg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market55%

Us41%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC 08 Homburg a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SSV Ulm 1846 v FC 08 Homburg~~1.39 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~17 v 7

~~The market · FC 08 Homburg win~~55% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC 08 Homburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSV Ulm 1846 win	34%	22%	+12
Draw	26%	23%	+3
FC 08 Homburg win	41%	55%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
SSV Ulm 1846 or draw	59%	45%	+14
SSV Ulm 1846 clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC 08 Homburg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 7.8 6.4 3.3 1 7.0 11.8 8.5 4.4 2 5.2 7.7 5.9 3.0 3 2.4 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Ulm 1846 down, FC 08 Homburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,681 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC 08 Homburg away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.54 for FC 08 Homburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SSV 0–0 FCH · FCH 1–4 SSV · SSV 1–2 FCH · FCH 3–3 SSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 Sept

SSV ULM 1846

LDLDWD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

FC 08 HOMBURG

WDLDDW2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	+12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	+13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	+4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	−1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	−2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	−1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	−7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	−2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	−3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	−13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	−11	9