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SSV Ulm 1846 v Eintracht Frankfurt II

SSV Ulm 1846

1–0Full time

Eintracht Frankfurt II

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT · Donaustadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

SSV Ulm 1846 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II SSV ULM 1846 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SSV Ulm 1846 win~~41%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.524

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.946

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SSV Ulm 1846 win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SSV Ulm 1846 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–34
1′KICK-OFF SSV Ulm 1846 v Eintracht Frankfurt II
45′HALF-TIME SSV Ulm 1846 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II
49′SECOND HALF SSV Ulm 1846 0–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II
65′We said SSV Ulm 1846 at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–52–22
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' SSV Ulm 1846 win: 41% at kick-off, 26% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was SSV Ulm 1846 win 26%)
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' SSV Ulm 1846 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II
83′⚽ GOAL · 78' SSV Ulm 1846 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II · S. Meuer
86′78′ and it is 1–0: S. Meuer on the scoresheet for SSV Ulm 1846. 1–0 · 94–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' SSV Ulm 1846 win: 41% at kick-off, 94% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' SSV Ulm 1846 win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 5%)
FTFULL TIME SSV Ulm 1846 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II
FTSSV Ulm 1846 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt II · SSV Ulm 1846 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SSV Ulm 1846 win41%

Draw25%

Eintracht Frankfurt II win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Donaustadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ssv ulm 1846 winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

41% The market23%

Us41%

~~Market~~23%

We make SSV Ulm 1846 a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ssv ulm 1846 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 10% to 23% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SSV Ulm 1846 win	41%	23%	+18
Draw	25%	21%	+5
Eintracht Frankfurt II win	34%	56%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	56%	69%	−12
Both teams to score	59%	67%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	47%	−13
SSV Ulm 1846 or draw	66%	44%	+22
SSV Ulm 1846 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Eintracht Frankfurt II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 6.6 5.1 2.4 1 7.6 11.7 7.6 3.6 2 6.4 8.5 5.9 2.8 3 3.4 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SSV Ulm 1846 down, Eintracht Frankfurt II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Frankfurt II away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.39 for Eintracht Frankfurt II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

SSV ULM 1846

DLLDLD4–4 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT II

WLDWLW3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5