SGV Freiberg v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

SGV Freiberg 3–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. SGV FREIBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SGV Freiberg win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SGV Freiberg win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: SGV Freiberg was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF SGV Freiberg v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
12′SGV Freiberg find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' SGV Freiberg 1–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' SGV Freiberg win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
13′We published SGV Freiberg at 59%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′HALF-TIME SGV Freiberg 1–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
46′SECOND HALF SGV Freiberg 1–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
63′We published SGV Freiberg at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′A goal for SGV Freiberg on 68′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
68′We published SGV Freiberg at 59%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' SGV Freiberg 2–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' SGV Freiberg win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' SGV Freiberg win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
72′S. Mustapha scores for SGV Freiberg on 71′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′SGV Freiberg score on 72′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′We published SGV Freiberg at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' SGV Freiberg 3–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′76′: P. Polauke on the scoresheet for SGV Freiberg, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME SGV Freiberg 3–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
FTSGV Freiberg 3–0 Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · SGV Freiberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SGV Freiberg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SGV Freiberg 59%, draw 22%, Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 18%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on SGV Freiberg v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SGV Freiberg win59%

Draw22%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SGV Freiberg

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sgv freiberg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make SGV Freiberg a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SGV Freiberg v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.~~1.98 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 23 v 6~~1 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SGV Freiberg win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
SGV Freiberg or draw	82%	–	–
SGV Freiberg clean sheet	38%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.9 4.7 2.6 1 9.7 10.5 5.0 2 10.0 9.7 4.8 3 6.6 6.4 3.2 4 3.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SGV Freiberg down, Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,665 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SGV Freiberg at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for SGV Freiberg, 0.99 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAR 0–2 SGV · SGV 1–1 BAR · BAR 1–2 SGV · SGV 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept

SGV FREIBERG

DWWDDW0–0 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN.

LLLLDL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	11	+16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	+9	21
3	VfR Mannheim	11	+8	20
4	Kickers Offenbach	12	+6	20
5	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	+4	20
6	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
7	Freiburg II	10	+6	16
8	TSV Steinbach	11	+4	16
9	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	−4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	−1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	11	−1	13
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	−3	10
14	Eintracht Frankfurt II	10	−3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	−11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	11	−12	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	−7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	−10	6