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Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg
Kickers Offenbach
SGV FreibergRegionalliga - SudWest · FRI 23 OCT · Bieberer Berg Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said SGV Freiberg win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: SGV Freiberg 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
- 1′KICK-OFF Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg
- 9′Kickers Offenbach find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–21–21
- 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
- 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
- 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Kickers Offenbach win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was SGV Freiberg win 41%)
- 10′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 59–21–20
- 15′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–21–19
- 30′Kickers Offenbach ahead on 5′ through M. Wolfram. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–22–16
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 62–22–16
- 36′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
- 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
- 46′SECOND HALF Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
- 53′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
- 54′A goal for SGV Freiberg on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–41–32
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
- 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kickers Offenbach win 68%)
- 56′A. Ballo scores for SGV Freiberg on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–42–31
- 58′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 26–44–30
- 60′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 25–46–29
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 91′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME Kickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg
- FTKickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg · SGV Freiberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
SGV Freiberg are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kickers Offenbach 33%, draw 25%, SGV Freiberg 42%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Kickers Offenbach win33%
SGV Freiberg win42%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00
RoundSudwest · matchday 13
VenueBieberer Berg Stadion
Match timeline
All events
Kickers OffenbachMIN
SGV FreibergEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kickers Offenbach
SGV Freiberg
Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest
Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make SGV Freiberg a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kickers Offenbach win | 33% | 28% | +5 |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| SGV Freiberg win | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 76% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 37% | +1 |
| Kickers Offenbach or draw | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Kickers Offenbach clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| SGV Freiberg clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept
KICKERS OFFENBACH
SGV FREIBERG
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 12 | +19 | 26 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 12 | +11 | 24 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 12 | +11 | 23 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Kickers Offenbach | 12 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | +1 | 19 |
| 7 | SV Sandhausen | 12 | −1 | 19 |
| 8 | Eintracht Trier | 12 | −3 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 11 | +5 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 12 | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 12 | −4 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 12 | −2 | 13 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 11 | −2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 12 | −11 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 12 | −5 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 12 | −13 | 10 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | −7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 12 | −13 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
VfR Aalen
VfR Mannheim
Stuttgarter Kickers
FC 08 Homburg
SV Sandhausen
Eintracht Trier
Freiburg II
TSV Steinbach
Hessen Kassel
FSV Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt II
FSV Mainz 05 II
FC Astoria Walldorf
Kaiserslautern II
SSV Ulm 1846
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.