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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Regionalliga - SudWest › Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg

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Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg

Kickers Offenbach
1–1Full time
SGV Freiberg

Regionalliga - SudWest · FRI 23 OCT · Bieberer Berg Stadion

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31
Kickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg SGV FREIBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said SGV Freiberg win42%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.857
The market’s Brier score0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SGV Freiberg win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SGV Freiberg 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg
  4. 9′Kickers Offenbach find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–21–21
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  7. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Kickers Offenbach win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was SGV Freiberg win 41%)
  8. 10′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 59–21–20
  9. 15′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–21–19
  10. 30′Kickers Offenbach ahead on 5′ through M. Wolfram. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–22–16
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 62–22–16
  12. 36′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
  13. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Kickers Offenbach 1–0 SGV Freiberg
  16. 53′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
  17. 54′A goal for SGV Freiberg on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–41–32
  18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg
  19. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  20. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Kickers Offenbach win 68%)
  21. 56′A. Ballo scores for SGV Freiberg on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–42–31
  22. 58′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 26–44–30
  23. 60′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 25–46–29
  24. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  25. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' SGV Freiberg win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  26. 91′We said SGV Freiberg at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  27. FTFULL TIME Kickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg
  28. FTKickers Offenbach 1–1 SGV Freiberg · SGV Freiberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SGV Freiberg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kickers Offenbach 33%, draw 25%, SGV Freiberg 42%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Kickers Offenbach v SGV FreibergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kickers Offenbach win33%
Draw25%
SGV Freiberg win42%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

VenueBieberer Berg Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kickers Offenbach

SGV Freiberg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1SGV Freiberg12+1926
5Kickers Offenbach12+620

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sgv freiberg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
42% The market46%
Us42%
Market46%

We make SGV Freiberg a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kickers Offenbach v SGV Freiberg1.46 – 1.67
Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 20 v 265 v 1
The market · SGV Freiberg win46% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 17:41
Our probability · SGV Freiberg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kickers Offenbach win33%28%+5
Draw25%26%−1
SGV Freiberg win42%46%−4
Over 2.5 goals60%57%+3
Both teams to score62%58%+4
Over 1.5 goals82%76%+6
Over 3.5 goals38%37%+1
Kickers Offenbach or draw58%54%+4
Kickers Offenbach clean sheet19%––
SGV Freiberg clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%
0123450 5.1 6.8 6.1 3.4 1 5.9 11.1 8.7 4.9 2.1 2 4.7 7.7 6.3 3.5 3 2.3 3.8 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kickers Offenbach down, SGV Freiberg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsSGV 2–0 KIC · KIC 2–5 SGV · KIC 0–2 SGV · SGV 0–0 KIC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept

KICKERS OFFENBACH

LWLLDL1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

SGV FREIBERG

WWDDWW5–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SGV Freiberg12+1926
2VfR Aalen12+1124
3VfR Mannheim12+1123
4Stuttgarter Kickers12+623
5Kickers Offenbach12+620
6FC 08 Homburg12+119
7SV Sandhausen12−119
8Eintracht Trier12−319
9Freiburg II11+516
10TSV Steinbach12+216
11Hessen Kassel12−414
12FSV Frankfurt12−213
13Eintracht Frankfurt II11−213
14FSV Mainz 05 II12−1111
15FC Astoria Walldorf12−510
16Kaiserslautern II12−1310
17SSV Ulm 184612−79
18Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.12−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.