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Kickers Offenbach v FC 08 Homburg

Kickers Offenbach

2–2Full time

FC 08 Homburg

Regionalliga - SudWest · FRI 9 OCT · Bieberer Berg Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Kickers Offenbach 2–2 FC 08 Homburg KICKERS OFFENBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kickers Offenbach win~~39%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.851

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kickers Offenbach win at 39%.
27′Little has changed for our model: Kickers Offenbach 39% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–29–34
40′A goal for FC 08 Homburg on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–33–32
40′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg · M. Wolfram
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg
45′HALF-TIME Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg
45′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg · M. Wolfram
45′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg · M. Ehrhart
46′SECOND HALF Kickers Offenbach 1–1 FC 08 Homburg
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kickers Offenbach 1–2 FC 08 Homburg
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kickers Offenbach 2–2 FC 08 Homburg
FTKickers Offenbach 2–2 FC 08 Homburg · Kickers Offenbach win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kickers Offenbach win39%

Draw25%

FC 08 Homburg win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Bieberer Berg Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kickers offenbach winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Kickers Offenbach a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kickers offenbach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kickers Offenbach win	39%	36%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−2
FC 08 Homburg win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	41%	−2
Kickers Offenbach or draw	64%	62%	+2
Kickers Offenbach clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC 08 Homburg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.1 6.0 5.1 2.6 1 6.3 11.1 8.0 4.1 2 5.6 8.4 6.4 3.3 3 3.0 4.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kickers Offenbach down, FC 08 Homburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,653 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kickers Offenbach at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC 08 Homburg away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Kickers Offenbach, 1.54 for FC 08 Homburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCH 1–1 KIC · KIC 2–2 FCH · FCH 5–1 KIC · KIC 5–1 FCH

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

KICKERS OFFENBACH

DWLWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

FC 08 HOMBURG

DWWDLD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
3	Kickers Offenbach	10	+7	19
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
7	FC 08 Homburg	10	0	15
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

The table