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Kaiserslautern II v Hessen Kassel

Kaiserslautern II

2–3Full time

Hessen Kassel

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel HESSEN KASSEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hessen Kassel win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hessen Kassel win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Kaiserslautern II v Hessen Kassel
2′Much as we predicted: Hessen Kassel was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–24–46
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Kaiserslautern II 1–0 Hessen Kassel
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kaiserslautern II 1–0 Hessen Kassel
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Kaiserslautern II 1–1 Hessen Kassel
23′Hessen Kassel ahead on 19′ through J. Kopf. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–28–42
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Hessen Kassel
43′D. Hofmeister scores for Kaiserslautern II on 35′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 62–24–13
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Hessen Kassel win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Kaiserslautern II win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Hessen Kassel win 13%)
45′We said Hessen Kassel at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 63–24–13
45′HALF-TIME Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Hessen Kassel
48′SECOND HALF Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Hessen Kassel
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kaiserslautern II 2–2 Hessen Kassel
64′49′ and it is 2–2: C. Kaymaz on the scoresheet for Hessen Kassel. 2–2 · 22–49–29
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Hessen Kassel win: 45% at kick-off, 29% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Kaiserslautern II win 22%)
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel
82′⚽ GOAL · 5' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel · B. Reinheimer
82′⚽ GOAL · 19' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel · J. Kopf
82′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel · D. Hofmeister
82′⚽ GOAL · 49' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel · C. Kaymaz
82′⚽ GOAL · 80' Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel
85′Hessen Kassel ahead on 78′ through S. Sararer. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–6–93
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Hessen Kassel win: 45% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Hessen Kassel win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 6%)
FTFULL TIME Kaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel
FTKaiserslautern II 2–3 Hessen Kassel · Hessen Kassel win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kaiserslautern II win30%

Draw25%

Hessen Kassel win45%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hessen kassel winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Hessen Kassel a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaiserslautern II win	30%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Hessen Kassel win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Kaiserslautern II or draw	55%	–	–
Kaiserslautern II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Hessen Kassel clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.5 7.3 6.8 3.9 1 5.7 11.3 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.2 6.1 3.5 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaiserslautern II down, Hessen Kassel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Kaiserslautern II at home: 0.25 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). Hessen Kassel away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Kaiserslautern II, 1.72 for Hessen Kassel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

KAISERSLAUTERN II

LWLLWD0–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

HESSEN KASSEL

WLWDLD5–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5