Kaiserslautern II v Freiburg II prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Freiburg II FREIBURG II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Freiburg II win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Freiburg II win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Freiburg II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 30–22–48
1′KICK-OFF Kaiserslautern II v Freiburg II
8′Freiburg II score on 8′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–70
8′We published Freiburg II at 48%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 14–16–70
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kaiserslautern II 0–1 Freiburg II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Freiburg II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
10′7′: F. Rudlin on the scoresheet for Freiburg II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–18–71
45′HALF-TIME Kaiserslautern II 0–1 Freiburg II
46′SECOND HALF Kaiserslautern II 0–1 Freiburg II
56′We published Freiburg II at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
63′Kaiserslautern II find the net on 62′. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–45–32
63′We said Freiburg II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 23–45–32
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kaiserslautern II 1–1 Freiburg II
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Freiburg II win: 48% at kick-off, 32% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Freiburg II win 76%)
68′We said Freiburg II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 21–50–29
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Freiburg II win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
73′A goal for Kaiserslautern II on 73′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–20–4
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Freiburg II
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Freiburg II win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Kaiserslautern II win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 57%)
74′We said Freiburg II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
83′D. Hofmeister scores for Kaiserslautern II on 74′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
FTFULL TIME Kaiserslautern II 2–1 Freiburg II
FTKaiserslautern II 2–1 Freiburg II · Freiburg II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Freiburg II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaiserslautern II 30%, draw 22%, Freiburg II 48%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Kaiserslautern II v Freiburg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kaiserslautern II win30%

Draw22%

Freiburg II win48%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaiserslautern II

Freiburg II

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Freiburg II	11	+5	16
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	−13	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · freiburg ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Freiburg II a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaiserslautern II v Freiburg II~~1.58 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~16 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaiserslautern II win	30%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Freiburg II win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Kaiserslautern II or draw	52%	–	–
Kaiserslautern II clean sheet	14%	–	–
Freiburg II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 5.2 5.6 3.8 1 3.9 9.1 8.6 5.8 3.0 2 3.4 6.7 6.7 4.5 2.3 3 3.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaiserslautern II down, Freiburg II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Kaiserslautern II at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Freiburg II away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Kaiserslautern II, 2.03 for Freiburg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept

KAISERSLAUTERN II

LWDLDL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2

FREIBURG II

DLWWLL0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	12	+19	26
2	VfR Aalen	12	+11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	+11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	+6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	12	+6	20
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	−3	19
9	Freiburg II	11	+5	16
10	TSV Steinbach	12	+2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	−4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	−2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	−2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	−11	11
15	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	−5	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	−13	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	−13	6