Hessen Kassel v VfR Mannheim prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Hessen Kassel 0–3 VfR Mannheim HESSEN KASSEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hessen Kassel win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.650

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hessen Kassel win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hessen Kassel 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Hessen Kassel v VfR Mannheim
16′A goal for VfR Mannheim on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–21–61
16′We said Hessen Kassel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–21–61
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Hessen Kassel 0–1 VfR Mannheim
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Hessen Kassel win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' VfR Mannheim win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Hessen Kassel win 18%)
19′L. Rupp scores for VfR Mannheim on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–21–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–22–63
31′We said Hessen Kassel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
45′HALF-TIME Hessen Kassel 0–1 VfR Mannheim
46′SECOND HALF Hessen Kassel 0–1 VfR Mannheim
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Hessen Kassel win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
50′We said Hessen Kassel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–68
64′VfR Mannheim score on 64′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Hessen Kassel 0–2 VfR Mannheim
65′We said Hessen Kassel at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Hessen Kassel win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
82′VfR Mannheim find the net on 82′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Hessen Kassel 0–3 VfR Mannheim
83′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Hessen Kassel 0–3 VfR Mannheim
FTHessen Kassel 0–3 VfR Mannheim · Hessen Kassel win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hessen Kassel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hessen Kassel 40%, draw 25%, VfR Mannheim 35%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Hessen Kassel v VfR MannheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hessen Kassel win40%

Draw25%

VfR Mannheim win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 12

VenueAuestadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hessen Kassel

VfR Mannheim

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 14 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	VfR Mannheim	11	+8	20
11	Hessen Kassel	11	−1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hessen kassel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Hessen Kassel a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hessen Kassel v VfR Mannheim~~1.56 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~11 v 3

~~The market · Hessen Kassel win~~33% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hessen Kassel win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hessen Kassel win	40%	33%	+7
Draw	25%	24%	+1
VfR Mannheim win	35%	44%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	57%	61%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Hessen Kassel or draw	65%	56%	+9
Hessen Kassel clean sheet	24%	–	–
VfR Mannheim clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.8 6.8 5.2 2.5 1 7.3 11.6 7.9 3.8 2 6.1 8.5 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hessen Kassel down, VfR Mannheim across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,665 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Hessen Kassel at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). VfR Mannheim away: 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Hessen Kassel, 1.43 for VfR Mannheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept

HESSEN KASSEL

LWDLDW0–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

VFR MANNHEIM

WDWWWW2–1 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	11	+16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	+9	21
3	VfR Mannheim	11	+8	20
4	Kickers Offenbach	12	+6	20
5	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	+4	20
6	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
7	Freiburg II	10	+6	16
8	TSV Steinbach	11	+4	16
9	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	−4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	−1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	11	−1	13
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	−3	10
14	Eintracht Frankfurt II	10	−3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	−11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	11	−12	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	−7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	−10	6