Hessen Kassel v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hessen KasselDrawBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hessen Kassel 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hessen Kassel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hessen Kassel 46%, draw 24%, Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 29%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Hessen Kassel v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Hessen Kassel win46%

Draw24%

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 14

VenueAuestadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hessen Kassel

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Hessen Kassel	13	−7	14
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	−11	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hessen kassel winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Hessen Kassel a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hessen Kassel v Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.~~1.74 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~12 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hessen Kassel win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Hessen Kassel or draw	71%	–	–
Hessen Kassel clean sheet	27%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 5.7 4.2 1 7.5 11.2 7.1 3.2 2 7.0 9.1 6.1 2.7 3 4.0 5.3 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hessen Kassel down, Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,681 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hessen Kassel at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Hessen Kassel, 1.34 for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–1 HES · HES 2–1 BAR · BAR 1–2 HES · HES 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 19 Sept

HESSEN KASSEL

DLDWLL2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–4

BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN.

LLDLLW2–3 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	+12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	+13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	+4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	−1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	−2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	−1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	−7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	−2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	−3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	−13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	−11	9