FSV Mainz 05 II v SV Sandhausen prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FSV Mainz 05 IIDrawSV Sandhausen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FSV Mainz 05 II 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FSV Mainz 05 II 41%, draw 26%, SV Sandhausen 34%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FSV Mainz 05 II v SV SandhausenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 II win41%

Draw26%

SV Sandhausen win34%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FSV Mainz 05 II

SV Sandhausen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	SV Sandhausen	13	−2	19
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	−13	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fsv mainz 05 ii winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make FSV Mainz 05 II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FSV Mainz 05 II v SV Sandhausen~~1.56 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~16 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FSV Mainz 05 II win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
SV Sandhausen win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 II or draw	66%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 II clean sheet	25%	–	–
SV Sandhausen clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.1 6.8 5.1 2.4 1 7.7 11.8 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.7 6.0 2.8 3 3.3 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FSV Mainz 05 II down, SV Sandhausen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,675 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FSV Mainz 05 II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). SV Sandhausen away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for FSV Mainz 05 II, 1.39 for SV Sandhausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FSV 1–3 SVS · SVS 2–2 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 19 Sept

FSV MAINZ 05 II

LWLDDL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

SV SANDHAUSEN

DWDWWL2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	+12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	+13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	+4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	−1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	−2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	−1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	−7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	−2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	−3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	−13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	−11	9