FSV Mainz 05 II v SSV Ulm 1846 prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846 FSV MAINZ 05 II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FSV Mainz 05 II win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.859

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FSV Mainz 05 II win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: FSV Mainz 05 II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
1′KICK-OFF FSV Mainz 05 II v SSV Ulm 1846
45′HALF-TIME FSV Mainz 05 II 0–0 SSV Ulm 1846
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FSV Mainz 05 II win 32%)
46′SECOND HALF FSV Mainz 05 II 0–0 SSV Ulm 1846
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–44–27
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' FSV Mainz 05 II win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
61′We said FSV Mainz 05 II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–49–25
65′We said FSV Mainz 05 II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
72′SSV Ulm 1846 score on 72′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′We said FSV Mainz 05 II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' FSV Mainz 05 II 0–1 SSV Ulm 1846
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' FSV Mainz 05 II win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' SSV Ulm 1846 win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
83′FSV Mainz 05 II find the net on 83′. 1–1. 1–1 · 10–81–9
83′We said FSV Mainz 05 II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–81–9
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was SSV Ulm 1846 win 9%)
84′We said FSV Mainz 05 II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–83–8
FTFULL TIME FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846
FTFSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846 · FSV Mainz 05 II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FSV Mainz 05 II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FSV Mainz 05 II 38%, draw 26%, SSV Ulm 1846 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on FSV Mainz 05 II v SSV Ulm 1846Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 II win38%

Draw26%

SSV Ulm 1846 win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FSV Mainz 05 II

SSV Ulm 1846

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	−11	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fsv mainz 05 ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make FSV Mainz 05 II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FSV Mainz 05 II v SSV Ulm 1846~~1.45 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~15 v 17

~~The market · FSV Mainz 05 II win~~40% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FSV Mainz 05 II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FSV Mainz 05 II win	38%	40%	−2
Draw	26%	24%	+2
SSV Ulm 1846 win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
FSV Mainz 05 II or draw	64%	64%	0
FSV Mainz 05 II clean sheet	25%	–	–
SSV Ulm 1846 clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 7.6 5.7 2.7 1 7.8 12.0 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FSV Mainz 05 II down, SSV Ulm 1846 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,665 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FSV Mainz 05 II at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for FSV Mainz 05 II, 1.40 for SSV Ulm 1846. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SSV 4–1 FSV · FSV 0–4 SSV · FSV 0–3 SSV · SSV 0–2 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept

FSV MAINZ 05 II

LLLWLD1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

SSV ULM 1846

LLDLDW0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	11	+16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	+9	21
3	VfR Mannheim	11	+8	20
4	Kickers Offenbach	12	+6	20
5	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	+4	20
6	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
7	Freiburg II	10	+6	16
8	TSV Steinbach	11	+4	16
9	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	−4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	−1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	11	−1	13
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	−3	10
14	Eintracht Frankfurt II	10	−3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	−11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	11	−12	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	−7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	−10	6