Freiburg II v SSV Ulm 1846 prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Freiburg IIDrawSSV Ulm 1846

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Freiburg II 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Freiburg II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Freiburg II 46%, draw 23%, SSV Ulm 1846 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Freiburg II v SSV Ulm 1846Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Freiburg II win46%

Draw23%

SSV Ulm 1846 win31%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Freiburg II

SSV Ulm 1846

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · freiburg ii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Freiburg II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Freiburg II v SSV Ulm 1846~~1.92 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 9~~9 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Freiburg II win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SSV Ulm 1846 win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Freiburg II or draw	69%	–	–
Freiburg II clean sheet	22%	–	–
SSV Ulm 1846 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 4.5 3.8 2.0 1 5.6 9.6 7.0 3.7 2 5.7 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.7 5.5 4.2 2.2 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Freiburg II down, SSV Ulm 1846 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,681 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Freiburg II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SSV Ulm 1846 away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Freiburg II, 1.55 for SSV Ulm 1846. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FRE 1–2 SSV · SSV 2–1 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept

FREIBURG II

LWWLLL1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

SSV ULM 1846

LDLDWD1–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	+12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	+13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	+4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	−1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	−2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	−1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	−7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	−2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	−3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	−13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	−11	9