Freiburg II v SGV Freiberg prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Freiburg II 1–2 SGV Freiberg SGV FREIBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SGV Freiberg win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SGV Freiberg win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Freiburg II v SGV Freiberg
2′Little has changed for our model: SGV Freiberg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
3′Little has changed for our model: SGV Freiberg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Freiburg II 1–0 SGV Freiberg
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Freiburg II 1–1 SGV Freiberg
45′SGV Freiberg ahead on 42′ through J. Steinkotter. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–33–38
45′HALF-TIME Freiburg II 1–1 SGV Freiberg
46′SECOND HALF Freiburg II 1–1 SGV Freiberg
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Freiburg II 1–2 SGV Freiberg
FTFULL TIME Freiburg II 1–2 SGV Freiberg
FTFreiburg II 1–2 SGV Freiberg · SGV Freiberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Freiburg II win33%

Draw23%

SGV Freiberg win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Freiburg II

SGV Freiberg

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
6	Freiburg II	9	+7	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sgv freiberg winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

45% The market–

Us45%

We make SGV Freiberg a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Freiburg II win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SGV Freiberg win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Freiburg II or draw	55%	–	–
Freiburg II clean sheet	15%	–	–
SGV Freiberg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.0 5.3 3.4 1 4.2 9.4 8.4 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 7.2 6.8 4.4 2.2 3 2.1 3.9 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Freiburg II down, SGV Freiberg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,661 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Freiburg II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SGV Freiberg away: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Freiburg II, 1.93 for SGV Freiberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FRE 1–2 SGV · SGV 3–0 FRE · SGV 2–0 FRE · FRE 2–1 SGV

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

FREIBURG II

DWDLWW0–0 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

SGV FREIBERG

DDWWDD4–4 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VfR Aalen	11	+9	21
2	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
3	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	+4	20
5	VfR Mannheim	10	+7	17
6	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
7	TSV Steinbach	11	+4	16
8	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
9	SV Sandhausen	11	−2	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	−4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	−1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	10	−1	12
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	9	−2	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	−3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	−11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	10	−12	9
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	−7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	−10	6