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FC Astoria Walldorf v Hessen Kassel

FC Astoria Walldorf
4–1Full time
Hessen Kassel

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
FC Astoria Walldorf 4–1 Hessen Kassel FC ASTORIA WALLDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Astoria Walldorf win39%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.574
The market’s Brier score0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Astoria Walldorf win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Astoria Walldorf 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Astoria Walldorf v Hessen Kassel
  4. 5′A goal for FC Astoria Walldorf on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–18–19
  5. 5′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 62%. 1–0 · 62–18–19
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 4' FC Astoria Walldorf 1–0 Hessen Kassel
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 39% at kick-off, 62% now
  8. 6′K. Fressle scores for FC Astoria Walldorf on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–19–19
  9. 30′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–15
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 65–21–15
  11. 38′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  12. 39′FC Astoria Walldorf score on 38′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
  13. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' FC Astoria Walldorf 2–0 Hessen Kassel
  14. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 39% at kick-off, 87% now
  15. 41′Hessen Kassel find the net on 40′. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–21–12
  16. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' FC Astoria Walldorf 2–1 Hessen Kassel
  17. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
  18. 45′HALF-TIME FC Astoria Walldorf 2–1 Hessen Kassel
  19. 46′SECOND HALF FC Astoria Walldorf 2–1 Hessen Kassel
  20. 52′A goal for FC Astoria Walldorf on 52′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–7–2
  21. 52′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–1 · 90–7–2
  22. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Astoria Walldorf 3–1 Hessen Kassel
  23. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
  24. 53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 91–7–2
  25. 64′FC Astoria Walldorf score on 64′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  26. 64′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  27. 64′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  28. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' FC Astoria Walldorf 4–1 Hessen Kassel
  29. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 68′63′: F. Kendel on the scoresheet for FC Astoria Walldorf, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 71′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. FTFULL TIME FC Astoria Walldorf 4–1 Hessen Kassel
  33. FTFC Astoria Walldorf 4–1 Hessen Kassel · FC Astoria Walldorf win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Astoria Walldorf just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Astoria Walldorf 39%, draw 23%, Hessen Kassel 38%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC Astoria Walldorf v Hessen KasselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Astoria Walldorf win39%
Draw23%
Hessen Kassel win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Astoria Walldorf

Hessen Kassel

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Hessen Kassel12−414
16FC Astoria Walldorf12−510

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc astoria walldorf winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market39%
Us39%
Market39%

We make FC Astoria Walldorf a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Astoria Walldorf v Hessen Kassel1.75 – 1.73
Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 10 v 1416 v 11
The market · FC Astoria Walldorf win39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:18
Our probability · FC Astoria Walldorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Astoria Walldorf win39%39%0
Draw23%25%−2
Hessen Kassel win38%36%+2
Over 2.5 goals67%66%+1
Both teams to score68%68%0
Over 1.5 goals86%84%+2
Over 3.5 goals46%47%−1
FC Astoria Walldorf or draw62%64%−2
FC Astoria Walldorf clean sheet18%––
Hessen Kassel clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 3.7 4.9 4.6 2.7 1 5.0 9.8 7.9 4.6 2.0 2 4.7 8.0 6.9 4.0 3 2.8 4.7 4.0 2.3 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Astoria Walldorf down, Hessen Kassel across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsFCA 3–4 HES · HES 1–3 FCA · FCA 2–2 HES · HES 1–4 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 11 Sept

FC ASTORIA WALLDORF

LLLWDL1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

HESSEN KASSEL

WDLDWL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SGV Freiberg13+1927
2VfR Aalen12+1124
3VfR Mannheim12+1123
4Stuttgarter Kickers12+623
5Kickers Offenbach13+621
6FC 08 Homburg12+119
7SV Sandhausen12−119
8Eintracht Trier12−319
9Freiburg II12+517
10TSV Steinbach12+216
11Hessen Kassel12−414
12FSV Frankfurt12−213
13Eintracht Frankfurt II11−213
14FSV Mainz 05 II12−1111
15Kaiserslautern II13−1311
16FC Astoria Walldorf12−510
17SSV Ulm 184612−79
18Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.12−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.