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FC Astoria Walldorf v FSV Mainz 05 II

FC Astoria Walldorf

1–1Full time

FSV Mainz 05 II

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

FC Astoria Walldorf 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II FC ASTORIA WALLDORF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Astoria Walldorf win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.846

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Astoria Walldorf win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Astoria Walldorf 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–33
2′KICK-OFF FC Astoria Walldorf v FSV Mainz 05 II
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FC Astoria Walldorf 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
42′F. Kendel scores for FC Astoria Walldorf on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
45′F. Kendel scores for FC Astoria Walldorf on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
45′HALF-TIME FC Astoria Walldorf 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
49′SECOND HALF FC Astoria Walldorf 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
65′We said FC Astoria Walldorf at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 27' FC Astoria Walldorf 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II · F. Kendel
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Astoria Walldorf 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
87′83′ and it is 1–1: J. Videira on the scoresheet for FSV Mainz 05 II. 1–1 · 5–90–5
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FC Astoria Walldorf win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was FC Astoria Walldorf win 5%)
FTFULL TIME FC Astoria Walldorf 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
FTFC Astoria Walldorf 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II · FC Astoria Walldorf win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Astoria Walldorf win43%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 05 II win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc astoria walldorf winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make FC Astoria Walldorf a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc astoria walldorf win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Astoria Walldorf win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
FSV Mainz 05 II win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	64%	0
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
FC Astoria Walldorf or draw	68%	70%	−2
FC Astoria Walldorf clean sheet	23%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 5.3 4.4 2.2 1 6.3 10.7 7.5 3.7 2 6.0 8.7 6.5 3.2 3 3.5 5.1 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Astoria Walldorf down, FSV Mainz 05 II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Astoria Walldorf at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FSV Mainz 05 II away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for FC Astoria Walldorf, 1.49 for FSV Mainz 05 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCA 1–2 FSV · FSV 0–0 FCA · FSV 1–2 FCA · FCA 3–2 FSV

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

FC ASTORIA WALLDORF

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 4–1

FSV MAINZ 05 II

WLLLWL2–1 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5