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FC 08 Homburg v Freiburg II

FC 08 Homburg

2–1Full time

Freiburg II

Regionalliga - SudWest · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

FC 08 Homburg 2–1 Freiburg II FC 08 HOMBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC 08 Homburg win~~52%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC 08 Homburg win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC 08 Homburg 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–27
1′KICK-OFF FC 08 Homburg v Freiburg II
5′FC 08 Homburg score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–15–12
5′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–15–12
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' FC 08 Homburg 1–0 Freiburg II
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
16′FC 08 Homburg find the net on 16′. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–7–4
16′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–7–4
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FC 08 Homburg 2–0 Freiburg II
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 89% now
23′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
40′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME FC 08 Homburg 2–0 Freiburg II
46′SECOND HALF FC 08 Homburg 2–0 Freiburg II
58′A goal for Freiburg II on 57′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
58′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 2–1 · 77–18–5
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' FC 08 Homburg 2–1 Freiburg II
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
67′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC 08 Homburg win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
89′We said FC 08 Homburg at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME FC 08 Homburg 2–1 Freiburg II
FTFC 08 Homburg 2–1 Freiburg II · FC 08 Homburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC 08 Homburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC 08 Homburg 52%, draw 22%, Freiburg II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC 08 Homburg v Freiburg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC 08 Homburg win52%

Draw22%

Freiburg II win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC 08 Homburg

Freiburg II

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Freiburg II	10	+6	16
9	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc 08 homburg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market46%

Us52%

~~Market~~46%

We make FC 08 Homburg a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC 08 Homburg v Freiburg II~~2.13 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 16~~9 v 7

~~The market · FC 08 Homburg win~~46% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC 08 Homburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC 08 Homburg win	52%	46%	+6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Freiburg II win	27%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	68%	67%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
FC 08 Homburg or draw	73%	70%	+3
FC 08 Homburg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Freiburg II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.3 3.7 3.1 1 5.4 8.9 6.3 3.1 2 6.1 8.9 6.5 3.3 3 4.3 6.3 4.6 2.3 4 2.3 3.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC 08 Homburg down, Freiburg II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,671 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC 08 Homburg at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Freiburg II away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for FC 08 Homburg, 1.49 for Freiburg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FCH 4–1 FRE · FRE 5–3 FCH · FRE 3–2 FCH · FCH 2–2 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 5 Sept

FC 08 HOMBURG

WWDLDD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

FREIBURG II

WDLWWL4–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	12	+19	26
2	VfR Aalen	12	+11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	+11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	+6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	12	+6	20
6	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
7	Freiburg II	10	+6	16
8	TSV Steinbach	12	+2	16
9	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	−4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	−4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	11	−1	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	−2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	−11	11
15	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	−5	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	−13	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	−13	6