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Eintracht Trier v FSV Frankfurt

Eintracht Trier
3–2Full time
FSV Frankfurt

Regionalliga - SudWest · SUN 18 OCT · Moselstadion

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Eintracht Trier 3–2 FSV Frankfurt FSV FRANKFURT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FSV Frankfurt win42%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.707
The market’s Brier score0.557

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FSV Frankfurt win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FSV Frankfurt was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Eintracht Trier v FSV Frankfurt
  4. 25′A goal for FSV Frankfurt on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  5. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Eintracht Trier 0–1 FSV Frankfurt
  6. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
  7. 26′We published FSV Frankfurt at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  8. 29′A. Suljic scores for FSV Frankfurt on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 10–19–70
  10. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Eintracht Trier 0–1 FSV Frankfurt
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Eintracht Trier 0–1 FSV Frankfurt
  13. 55′We published FSV Frankfurt at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  14. 68′We published FSV Frankfurt at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  15. 71′FSV Frankfurt find the net on 71′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
  16. 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
  17. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Eintracht Trier 1–2 FSV Frankfurt
  18. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Eintracht Trier 1–2 FSV Frankfurt
  19. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
  20. 74′A goal for Eintracht Trier on 74′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 16–64–20
  21. 74′We said FSV Frankfurt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 2–2 · 16–64–20
  22. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Eintracht Trier 2–2 FSV Frankfurt
  23. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
  24. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FSV Frankfurt win 20%)
  25. 75′T. Sausen scores for Eintracht Trier on 73′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 16–65–19
  26. 75′We said FSV Frankfurt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 16–65–19
  27. 75′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 16–65–19
  28. 80′We said FSV Frankfurt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 12–74–14
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  30. 84′We said FSV Frankfurt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 8–83–9
  31. 90′Eintracht Trier score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  32. 90′We said FSV Frankfurt at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  33. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  34. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Eintracht Trier 3–2 FSV Frankfurt
  35. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FSV Frankfurt win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
  36. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Eintracht Trier win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
  37. FTFULL TIME Eintracht Trier 3–2 FSV Frankfurt
  38. FTEintracht Trier 3–2 FSV Frankfurt · FSV Frankfurt win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FSV Frankfurt are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eintracht Trier 32%, draw 26%, FSV Frankfurt 42%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Eintracht Trier v FSV FrankfurtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eintracht Trier win32%
Draw26%
FSV Frankfurt win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 12

VenueMoselstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eintracht Trier

FSV Frankfurt

8Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

Last match: 14 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Eintracht Trier11−416
12FSV Frankfurt11−113

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fsv frankfurt winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market34%
Us42%
Market34%

We make FSV Frankfurt a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Eintracht Trier v FSV Frankfurt1.33 – 1.56
Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 16 v 1310 v 12
The market · FSV Frankfurt win34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 12:43
Our probability · FSV Frankfurt win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Eintracht Trier win32%39%−7
Draw26%26%0
FSV Frankfurt win42%34%+8
Over 2.5 goals55%56%−1
Both teams to score58%60%−2
Over 1.5 goals79%78%+1
Over 3.5 goals33%36%−3
Eintracht Trier or draw58%66%−8
Eintracht Trier clean sheet21%––
FSV Frankfurt clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.4 8.1 6.8 3.5 1 6.9 12.0 8.8 4.6 2 4.9 7.5 5.8 3.0 3 2.2 3.4 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Eintracht Trier down, FSV Frankfurt across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsEIN 1–1 FSV · FSV 2–0 EIN · EIN 3–3 FSV · FSV 3–1 EIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 8 Sept

EINTRACHT TRIER

DWLWLL0–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 0–4

FSV FRANKFURT

WWLLLD2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1SGV Freiberg12+1926
2VfR Aalen12+1124
3VfR Mannheim12+1123
4Stuttgarter Kickers12+623
5Kickers Offenbach12+620
6SV Sandhausen12−119
7Freiburg II10+616
8TSV Steinbach12+216
9FC 08 Homburg11016
10Eintracht Trier11−416
11Hessen Kassel12−414
12FSV Frankfurt11−113
13Eintracht Frankfurt II11−213
14FSV Mainz 05 II12−1111
15FC Astoria Walldorf12−510
16Kaiserslautern II12−1310
17SSV Ulm 184612−79
18Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.12−136

The competition's standings before kick-off.