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Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v VfR Aalen

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

0–2Full time

VfR Aalen

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN. WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win at 37%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
2′KICK-OFF Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v VfR Aalen
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–1 VfR Aalen
22′D. Melo scores for VfR Aalen on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–65
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' VfR Aalen win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win 14%)
42′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–22–68
45′D. Melo scores for VfR Aalen on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′HALF-TIME Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–1 VfR Aalen
48′SECOND HALF Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–1 VfR Aalen
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen
65′55′ and it is 0–2: G. Gaudino on the scoresheet for VfR Aalen. 0–2 · 0–4–96
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 37% at kick-off, 0% now
83′⚽ GOAL · 14' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen · D. Melo
83′⚽ GOAL · 55' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen · G. Gaudino
86′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen
FTBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 0–2 VfR Aalen · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win37%

Draw27%

VfR Aalen win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barockstadt fulda-lehn. winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
VfR Aalen win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or draw	64%	–	–
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. clean sheet	27%	–	–
VfR Aalen clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.8 8.3 6.0 2.7 1 8.5 12.7 7.9 3.6 2 6.3 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. down, VfR Aalen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,654 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.9% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). VfR Aalen away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., 1.33 for VfR Aalen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAR 0–0 VFR · VFR 2–0 BAR · BAR 5–0 VFR · VFR 3–0 BAR

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest

BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN.

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 1–1

VFR AALEN

WWDLWW2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	10	+15	20
2	Kickers Offenbach	11	+7	20
3	Stuttgarter Kickers	10	+6	20
4	VfR Aalen	10	+7	18
5	Freiburg II	9	+7	16
6	FC 08 Homburg	11	0	16
7	Eintracht Trier	10	0	16
8	VfR Mannheim	9	+5	14
9	TSV Steinbach	10	0	13
10	SV Sandhausen	10	−4	13
11	FSV Frankfurt	9	+1	12
12	Hessen Kassel	10	−2	11
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	8	−1	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	10	−3	9
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	10	−11	9
16	Kaiserslautern II	9	−11	9
17	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	10	−8	6
18	SSV Ulm 1846	10	−8	5