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Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v FSV Mainz 05 II

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

3–1Full time

FSV Mainz 05 II

Regionalliga - SudWest · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 II BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.528

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v FSV Mainz 05 II
14′A goal for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
14′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–13
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
26′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′M. Dittmann scores for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
45′HALF-TIME Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
46′SECOND HALF Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 II
57′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
67′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
73′FSV Mainz 05 II score on 72′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–64–17
73′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–64–17
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win 83%)
79′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
84′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–7
88′Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. find the net on 88′. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 88%)
90′A goal for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
91′We said Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 II
FTBarockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 3–1 FSV Mainz 05 II · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. 41%, draw 27%, FSV Mainz 05 II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v FSV Mainz 05 IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win41%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 05 II win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSudwest · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.

FSV Mainz 05 II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - SudWest

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	−11	11
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barockstadt fulda-lehn. winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. v FSV Mainz 05 II~~1.44 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~18 v 14

~~The market · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win~~35% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. win	41%	35%	+6
Draw	27%	28%	−1
FSV Mainz 05 II win	32%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. or draw	68%	63%	+5
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. clean sheet	29%	–	–
FSV Mainz 05 II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 7.8 5.3 2.3 1 9.1 12.7 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. down, FSV Mainz 05 II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,675 Regionalliga - SudWest matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - SudWest matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). FSV Mainz 05 II away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn., 1.26 for FSV Mainz 05 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–1 FSV · FSV 2–2 BAR · FSV 0–1 BAR · BAR 1–0 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - SudWest this season · since 12 Sept

BAROCKSTADT FULDA-LEHN.

LLLDLL1–2 · 2–3 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

FSV MAINZ 05 II

LLWLDD0–5 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SGV Freiberg	13	+19	27
2	VfR Aalen	12	+11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	+11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	+6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	13	+6	21
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	+1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	−1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	−3	19
9	Freiburg II	12	+5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	12	+2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	−4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	−2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	−2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	−11	11
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	−13	11
16	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	−5	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	−7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	−13	6