SV Babelsberg 03 v Lokomotive Leipzig prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Lokomotive Leipzig LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotive Leipzig win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotive Leipzig win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF SV Babelsberg 03 v Lokomotive Leipzig
3′Much as we predicted: Lokomotive Leipzig was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
6′Much as we predicted: Lokomotive Leipzig was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–23–46
45′HALF-TIME SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Lokomotive Leipzig
46′SECOND HALF SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Lokomotive Leipzig
FTFULL TIME SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Lokomotive Leipzig
FTSV Babelsberg 03 0–0 Lokomotive Leipzig · Lokomotive Leipzig win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SV Babelsberg 03 win31%

Draw23%

Lokomotive Leipzig win46%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SV Babelsberg 03

Lokomotive Leipzig

14Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotive leipzig winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Lokomotive Leipzig a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lokomotive leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Babelsberg 03 win	31%	31%	0
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lokomotive Leipzig win	46%	44%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	65%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	82%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
SV Babelsberg 03 or draw	54%	56%	−2
SV Babelsberg 03 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Lokomotive Leipzig clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 6.0 5.9 3.7 1 4.8 9.9 8.8 5.5 2.6 2 3.9 7.1 6.6 4.1 3 3.6 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Babelsberg 03 down, Lokomotive Leipzig across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,708 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Babelsberg 03 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotive Leipzig away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for SV Babelsberg 03, 1.88 for Lokomotive Leipzig. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SVB 1–2 LOK · LOK 1–0 SVB · SVB 3–1 LOK · LOK 2–1 SVB

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

SV BABELSBERG 03

LLDWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–2

LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG

LLDDWL0–2 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
5	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
6	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
7	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	12	−12	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5