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SV Babelsberg 03 v BFC Preussen

SV Babelsberg 03

1–0Full time

BFC Preussen

Regionalliga - Nordost · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

SV Babelsberg 03 1–0 BFC Preussen SV BABELSBERG 03 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Babelsberg 03 win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Babelsberg 03 win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: SV Babelsberg 03 was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
1′KICK-OFF SV Babelsberg 03 v BFC Preussen
45′HALF-TIME SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 BFC Preussen
46′SECOND HALF SV Babelsberg 03 0–0 BFC Preussen
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SV Babelsberg 03 win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was SV Babelsberg 03 win 36%)
55′We expected about 3.3 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–40–26
56′We said SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–41–26
64′We said SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–23
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' SV Babelsberg 03 win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
72′We said SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
73′A goal for SV Babelsberg 03 on 72′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
73′We published SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–16–2
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' SV Babelsberg 03 1–0 BFC Preussen
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' SV Babelsberg 03 win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' SV Babelsberg 03 win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 57%)
77′We published SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' SV Babelsberg 03 win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
83′We published SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
89′We published SV Babelsberg 03 at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' SV Babelsberg 03 win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME SV Babelsberg 03 1–0 BFC Preussen
FTSV Babelsberg 03 1–0 BFC Preussen · SV Babelsberg 03 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Babelsberg 03 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Babelsberg 03 45%, draw 23%, BFC Preussen 32%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on SV Babelsberg 03 v BFC PreussenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SV Babelsberg 03 win45%

Draw23%

BFC Preussen win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Babelsberg 03

BFC Preussen

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv babelsberg 03 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make SV Babelsberg 03 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Babelsberg 03 v BFC Preussen~~1.82 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~12 v 13

~~The market · SV Babelsberg 03 win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SV Babelsberg 03 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Babelsberg 03 win	45%	45%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
BFC Preussen win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Both teams to score	65%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	39%	+3
SV Babelsberg 03 or draw	68%	68%	0
SV Babelsberg 03 clean sheet	23%	–	–
BFC Preussen clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 5.2 4.1 2.1 1 6.4 10.2 7.3 3.6 2 6.1 8.8 6.5 3.3 3 3.7 5.3 3.9 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Babelsberg 03 down, BFC Preussen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,721 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Babelsberg 03 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). BFC Preussen away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for SV Babelsberg 03, 1.49 for BFC Preussen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BFC 3–6 SVB · SVB 2–5 BFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept

SV BABELSBERG 03

DWLWDL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–6

BFC PREUSSEN

WWDLDL4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	+22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	+9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	+2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	−2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6