RSV Eintracht v Tasmania Berlin prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

RSV Eintracht 1–2 Tasmania Berlin RSV EINTRACHT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RSV Eintracht win~~56%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.918

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RSV Eintracht win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: RSV Eintracht was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–19–25
1′KICK-OFF RSV Eintracht v Tasmania Berlin
18′A goal for Tasmania Berlin on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 32–22–47
18′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–1 · 32–22–47
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' RSV Eintracht 0–1 Tasmania Berlin
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' RSV Eintracht win: 56% at kick-off, 32% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Tasmania Berlin win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was RSV Eintracht win 53%)
24′K. Yayla scores for Tasmania Berlin on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–22–48
25′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–22–48
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 27–23–49
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' RSV Eintracht win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
38′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
45′HALF-TIME RSV Eintracht 0–1 Tasmania Berlin
46′SECOND HALF RSV Eintracht 0–1 Tasmania Berlin
49′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
52′Tasmania Berlin score on 52′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 6–12–82
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' RSV Eintracht 0–2 Tasmania Berlin
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' RSV Eintracht win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
53′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–83
57′We said RSV Eintracht at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
95′RSV Eintracht find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' RSV Eintracht 1–2 Tasmania Berlin
FTFULL TIME RSV Eintracht 1–2 Tasmania Berlin
FTRSV Eintracht 1–2 Tasmania Berlin · RSV Eintracht win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RSV Eintracht are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RSV Eintracht 56%, draw 19%, Tasmania Berlin 25%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on RSV Eintracht v Tasmania BerlinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

RSV Eintracht win56%

Draw19%

Tasmania Berlin win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RSV Eintracht

Tasmania Berlin

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rsv eintracht winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market42%

Us56%

~~Market~~42%

We make RSV Eintracht a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RSV Eintracht v Tasmania Berlin~~2.44 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~16 v 17

~~The market · RSV Eintracht win~~42% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RSV Eintracht win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RSV Eintracht win	56%	42%	+14
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Tasmania Berlin win	25%	33%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	75%	60%	+15
Both teams to score	70%	62%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	37%	+19
RSV Eintracht or draw	75%	67%	+8
RSV Eintracht clean sheet	22%	–	–
Tasmania Berlin clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 2.9 2.5 1 4.5 7.3 5.5 2.9 2 5.5 8.1 6.2 3.3 3 4.5 6.4 4.9 2.6 4 2.8 4.0 3.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+RSV Eintracht down, Tasmania Berlin across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,724 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RSV Eintracht at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tasmania Berlin away: 0.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for RSV Eintracht, 1.55 for Tasmania Berlin. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAS 1–1 RSV · RSV 0–4 TAS · RSV 1–1 TAS · TAS 2–1 RSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 10 Sept

RSV EINTRACHT

LLLLLW0–5 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–0

TASMANIA BERLIN

LLDLLW1–3 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	+22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	+2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	−2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6