Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Regionalliga - Nordost › Magdeburg II v Greifswalder FC

Back
Germany flag

Magdeburg II v Greifswalder FC

Magdeburg II
4–2Full time
Greifswalder FC

Regionalliga - Nordost · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Magdeburg II 4–2 Greifswalder FC GREIFSWALDER FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Greifswalder FC win39%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.609
The market’s Brier score0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Greifswalder FC win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Greifswalder FC 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Magdeburg II v Greifswalder FC
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Magdeburg II 0–0 Greifswalder FC
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Magdeburg II 0–0 Greifswalder FC
  6. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Greifswalder FC win 32%)
  7. 49′A goal for Greifswalder FC on 48′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–69
  8. 49′We said Greifswalder FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 9–21–69
  9. 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Magdeburg II 0–1 Greifswalder FC
  10. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Greifswalder FC win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
  11. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Greifswalder FC win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 21%)
  12. 50′We said Greifswalder FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
  13. 55′R. Leipertz scores for Greifswalder FC on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–21–71
  14. 56′Magdeburg II score on 56′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 29–42–30
  15. 56′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 29–42–30
  16. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Magdeburg II 1–1 Greifswalder FC
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Greifswalder FC win: 39% at kick-off, 30% now
  18. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Greifswalder FC win 30%)
  19. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Greifswalder FC win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  20. 60′55′: E. Widmann on the scoresheet for Magdeburg II, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–45–28
  21. 62′We said Greifswalder FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 26–46–27
  22. 67′Magdeburg II find the net on 66′. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–20–5
  23. 67′We said Greifswalder FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
  24. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Magdeburg II 2–1 Greifswalder FC
  25. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Greifswalder FC win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
  26. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Magdeburg II win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
  27. 69′We said Greifswalder FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
  28. 70′A goal for Magdeburg II on 69′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  29. 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  30. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Magdeburg II 3–1 Greifswalder FC
  31. 76′Magdeburg II score on 76′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 76′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Magdeburg II 4–1 Greifswalder FC
  34. 86′Greifswalder FC find the net on 85′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  35. 86′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  36. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Magdeburg II 4–2 Greifswalder FC
  37. FTFULL TIME Magdeburg II 4–2 Greifswalder FC
  38. FTMagdeburg II 4–2 Greifswalder FC · Greifswalder FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Greifswalder FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Magdeburg II 37%, draw 24%, Greifswalder FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Magdeburg II v Greifswalder FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Magdeburg II win37%
Draw24%
Greifswalder FC win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Magdeburg II

Greifswalder FC

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Greifswalder FC12+822
11Magdeburg II12−413

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greifswalder fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
39% The market42%
Us39%
Market42%

We make Greifswalder FC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Magdeburg II v Greifswalder FC1.60 – 1.66
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 13 v 2211 v 7
The market · Greifswalder FC win42% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 12:43
Our probability · Greifswalder FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Magdeburg II win37%33%+4
Draw24%24%0
Greifswalder FC win39%42%−3
Over 2.5 goals63%60%+3
Both teams to score64%62%+2
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals41%37%+4
Magdeburg II or draw61%58%+3
Magdeburg II clean sheet19%––
Greifswalder FC clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.4 6.1 5.3 2.9 1 5.9 10.5 8.3 4.6 2 5.0 8.0 6.6 3.6 3 2.7 4.3 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Magdeburg II down, Greifswalder FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsGRE 1–3 MAG · MAG 1–1 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 30 Aug

MAGDEBURG II

WLLLLL4–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2

GREIFSWALDER FC

DDWWLW2–2 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chemnitzer FC12+2229
2FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt13+2328
3FC Carl Zeiss Jena13+1125
4Hallescher FC12+1025
5BFC Dynamo12+924
6Altglienicke13+724
7Greifswalder FC12+822
8Erzgebirge Aue12+321
9FSV Zwickau13−219
10Lokomotive Leipzig13017
11Magdeburg II12−413
12SV Babelsberg 0313−913
13BFC Preussen13−511
14BSG Chemie Leipzig13−710
15Hertha BSC II13−1310
16RSV Eintracht13−169
17Tasmania Berlin13−198
18Luckenwalde13−186

The competition's standings before kick-off.