Luckenwalde v Hertha BSC II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LuckenwaldeDrawHertha BSC II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Luckenwalde 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Luckenwalde just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Luckenwalde 37%, draw 26%, Hertha BSC II 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Luckenwalde v Hertha BSC IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Luckenwalde win37%

Draw26%

Hertha BSC II win36%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Luckenwalde

Hertha BSC II

7Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luckenwalde winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Luckenwalde a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Luckenwalde v Hertha BSC II~~1.38 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~18 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luckenwalde win	37%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Hertha BSC II win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Luckenwalde or draw	64%	–	–
Luckenwalde clean sheet	26%	–	–
Hertha BSC II clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.2 8.4 6.0 2.7 1 8.6 12.5 8.1 3.7 2 6.2 8.2 5.5 2.5 3 2.9 3.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Luckenwalde down, Hertha BSC II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luckenwalde at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hertha BSC II away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Luckenwalde, 1.35 for Hertha BSC II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HER 0–1 LUC · LUC 0–1 HER · LUC 1–0 HER · HER 2–1 LUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept

LUCKENWALDE

LLLWLL0–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

HERTHA BSC II

LLWDDL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	+24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	+21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	+5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	+5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	−1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	−18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	−17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6