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Lokomotive Leipzig v BSG Chemie Leipzig

Lokomotive Leipzig

2–2Full time

BSG Chemie Leipzig

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Lokomotive Leipzig 2–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotive Leipzig win~~60%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.004

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.941

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotive Leipzig win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lokomotive Leipzig 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotive Leipzig v BSG Chemie Leipzig
21′BSG Chemie Leipzig score on 20′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 29–26–45
21′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Lokomotive Leipzig 0–1 BSG Chemie Leipzig
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, 29% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' BSG Chemie Leipzig win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Lokomotive Leipzig win 29%)
22′22′: W. Reincke on the scoresheet for BSG Chemie Leipzig, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 29–26–45
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 26–27–47
33′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
37′BSG Chemie Leipzig find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 8–15–78
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Lokomotive Leipzig 0–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, 8% now
38′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–15–78
44′BSG Chemie Leipzig ahead on 39′ through L. Jakobi. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–13–81
45′A goal for Lokomotive Leipzig on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 19–28–53
45′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–28–53
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 19–28–53
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Lokomotive Leipzig 1–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, 19% now
46′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–36–17
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, 46% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Lokomotive Leipzig win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Draw 36%)
54′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
74′We said Lokomotive Leipzig at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Lokomotive Leipzig win: 60% at kick-off, under 1% now
93′Lokomotive Leipzig score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–2
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 3–95–2
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Lokomotive Leipzig 2–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was BSG Chemie Leipzig win 2%)
95′86′: R. Bornschein on the scoresheet for Lokomotive Leipzig, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Lokomotive Leipzig 2–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig
FTLokomotive Leipzig 2–2 BSG Chemie Leipzig · Lokomotive Leipzig win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotive Leipzig are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotive Leipzig 60%, draw 22%, BSG Chemie Leipzig 18%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotive Leipzig v BSG Chemie LeipzigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotive Leipzig win60%

Draw22%

BSG Chemie Leipzig win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotive Leipzig

BSG Chemie Leipzig

6Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	12	0	16
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotive leipzig winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market56%

Us60%

~~Market~~56%

We make Lokomotive Leipzig a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotive Leipzig v BSG Chemie Leipzig~~1.98 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~10 v 15

~~The market · Lokomotive Leipzig win~~56% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotive Leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotive Leipzig win	60%	56%	+4
Draw	22%	23%	−1
BSG Chemie Leipzig win	18%	20%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Lokomotive Leipzig or draw	82%	80%	+2
Lokomotive Leipzig clean sheet	38%	–	–
BSG Chemie Leipzig clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.8 4.8 2.5 1 10.1 10.3 4.8 2 10.2 9.7 4.7 3 6.8 6.4 3.1 4 3.4 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotive Leipzig down, BSG Chemie Leipzig across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,715 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotive Leipzig at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). BSG Chemie Leipzig away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Lokomotive Leipzig, 0.96 for BSG Chemie Leipzig. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BSG 1–0 LOK · LOK 2–0 BSG · BSG 0–3 LOK · LOK 2–0 BSG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 28 Aug

LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG

LDDWLD1–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 0–0

BSG CHEMIE LEIPZIG

DDWLWL1–1 · 2–2 · 5–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	+22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
4	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
6	Greifswalder FC	12	+8	22
7	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	12	0	16
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6