Lokomotive Leipzig v Altglienicke prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lokomotive LeipzigDrawAltglienicke

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotive Leipzig 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotive Leipzig are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotive Leipzig 45%, draw 25%, Altglienicke 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotive Leipzig v AltglienickeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotive Leipzig win45%

Draw25%

Altglienicke win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotive Leipzig

Altglienicke

13Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 23 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotive leipzig winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Lokomotive Leipzig a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotive Leipzig v Altglienicke~~1.62 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 27~~11 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotive Leipzig win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Altglienicke win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Lokomotive Leipzig or draw	71%	–	–
Lokomotive Leipzig clean sheet	29%	–	–
Altglienicke clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 6.7 4.5 1 8.8 11.7 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotive Leipzig down, Altglienicke across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotive Leipzig at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Altglienicke away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Lokomotive Leipzig, 1.26 for Altglienicke. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALT 2–3 LOK · LOK 1–0 ALT · LOK 2–0 ALT · ALT 0–1 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 13 Sept

LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG

DDWLDD3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

ALTGLIENICKE

WWWLWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	+24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	+21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	+5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	+5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	−1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	−18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	−17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6