Hallescher FC v Lokomotive Leipzig prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hallescher FCDrawLokomotive Leipzig

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hallescher FC 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hallescher FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hallescher FC 46%, draw 26%, Lokomotive Leipzig 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Hallescher FC v Lokomotive LeipzigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hallescher FC win46%

Draw26%

Lokomotive Leipzig win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

VenueLeuna Chemie Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hallescher FC

Lokomotive Leipzig

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hallescher fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

46% The market54%

Us46%

~~Market~~54%

We make Hallescher FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hallescher FC v Lokomotive Leipzig~~1.56 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 17~~3 v 11

~~The market · Hallescher FC win~~54% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hallescher FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hallescher FC win	46%	54%	−8
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Lokomotive Leipzig win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	61%	−10
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Hallescher FC or draw	72%	76%	−4
Hallescher FC clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lokomotive Leipzig clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 7.3 4.4 1 10.0 12.2 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.2 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hallescher FC down, Lokomotive Leipzig across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hallescher FC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotive Leipzig away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Hallescher FC, 1.15 for Lokomotive Leipzig. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LOK 0–0 HAL · HAL 2–4 LOK · HAL 0–1 LOK · LOK 1–1 HAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept

HALLESCHER FC

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

LOKOMOTIVE LEIPZIG

DDWLDD3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	+24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	+21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	+5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	+5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	−1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	−18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	−17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6