Home › Football › Regionalliga - Nordost › Greifswalder FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Greifswalder FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Greifswalder FC

2–3Full time

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Greifswalder FC 2–3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt FC ROT-WEISS ERFURT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win~~41%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.425

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–24–41
1′KICK-OFF Greifswalder FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
19′A goal for Greifswalder FC on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–21–18
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Greifswalder FC 1–0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Greifswalder FC win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 39%)
20′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 61–21–18
29′Greifswalder FC score on 29′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 84–11–5
29′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Greifswalder FC 2–0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 5% now
33′FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt find the net on 32′. 2–1. 2–1 · 63–22–15
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Greifswalder FC 2–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
36′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 63–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Greifswalder FC 2–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
46′SECOND HALF Greifswalder FC 2–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
57′A goal for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt on 57′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 27–42–31
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 27–42–31
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Greifswalder FC 2–2 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Greifswalder FC win 69%)
61′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 26–45–29
68′FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt score on 67′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 4–18–78
68′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–3 · 4–18–78
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Greifswalder FC 2–3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 51%)
69′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 4–18–78
72′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
78′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–14–85
83′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
90′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Greifswalder FC 2–3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FTGreifswalder FC 2–3 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Greifswalder FC 35%, draw 24%, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 41%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Greifswalder FC v FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Greifswalder FC win35%

Draw24%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Greifswalder FC

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc rot-weiß erfurt winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

41% The market47%

Us41%

~~Market~~47%

We make FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Greifswalder FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt~~1.56 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 28~~7 v 2

~~The market · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win~~47% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greifswalder FC win	35%	30%	+5
Draw	24%	23%	+1
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win	41%	47%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	64%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Greifswalder FC or draw	59%	53%	+6
Greifswalder FC clean sheet	18%	–	–
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.3 6.2 5.6 3.2 1 5.6 10.4 8.5 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.6 3.8 3 2.4 4.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greifswalder FC down, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,724 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Greifswalder FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Greifswalder FC, 1.72 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GRE 1–2 FCR · FCR 3–2 GRE · FCR 2–0 GRE · GRE 1–2 FCR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 Sept

GREIFSWALDER FC

DWWLWL3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–4

FC ROT-WEISS ERFURT

WWDWLD5–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	+22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	+2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	−2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6