Greifswalder FC v Erzgebirge Aue prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue GREIFSWALDER FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Greifswalder FC win~~47%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.424

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.627

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Greifswalder FC win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Greifswalder FC was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Greifswalder FC v Erzgebirge Aue
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue · F. Heim
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue · F. Heim
21′12′ and it is 1–0: F. Heim on the scoresheet for Greifswalder FC. 1–0 · 72–18–10
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Greifswalder FC win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Greifswalder FC win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
22′12′ and it is 1–0: F. Heim on the scoresheet for Greifswalder FC. 1–0 · 72–18–10
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Greifswalder FC win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Greifswalder FC win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
42′We published Greifswalder FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′We published Greifswalder FC at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Greifswalder FC win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
46′SECOND HALF Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue
FTFULL TIME Greifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue
FTGreifswalder FC 1–0 Erzgebirge Aue · Greifswalder FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Greifswalder FC win47%

Draw25%

Erzgebirge Aue win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Greifswalder FC

Erzgebirge Aue

16Days since last match14

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · greifswalder fc winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

47% The market36%

Us47%

~~Market~~36%

We make Greifswalder FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Greifswalder FC win	47%	36%	+10
Draw	25%	21%	+3
Erzgebirge Aue win	29%	42%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	57%	73%	−17
Both teams to score	59%	73%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	53%	−18
Greifswalder FC or draw	71%	58%	+14
Greifswalder FC clean sheet	28%	–	–
Erzgebirge Aue clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 6.1 4.2 1 8.3 11.3 6.9 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Greifswalder FC down, Erzgebirge Aue across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,708 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Greifswalder FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Erzgebirge Aue away: 1.80 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Greifswalder FC, 1.28 for Erzgebirge Aue. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

GREIFSWALDER FC

WDDWWL2–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

ERZGEBIRGE AUE

DWWWDL0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
5	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
6	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
7	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	12	−12	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5