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FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v FSV Zwickau

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

2–2Full time

FSV Zwickau

Regionalliga - Nordost · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2–2 FSV Zwickau FC ROT-WEISS ERFURT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win~~58%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.005

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.999

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
1′KICK-OFF FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v FSV Zwickau
10′FSV Zwickau find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 33–23–43
10′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–23–43
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 0–1 FSV Zwickau
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 58% at kick-off, 33% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' FSV Zwickau win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 33%)
21′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
23′A goal for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–25–21
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1–1 FSV Zwickau
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 58% at kick-off, 54% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FSV Zwickau win 21%)
25′25′: O. Fobassam on the scoresheet for FSV Zwickau, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 28–25–47
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1–2 FSV Zwickau · O. Fobassam
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' FSV Zwickau win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win 28%)
34′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–26–49
45′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–27–53
45′HALF-TIME FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1–2 FSV Zwickau
46′SECOND HALF FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1–2 FSV Zwickau
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
55′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–58
64′24′: O. Fobassam on the scoresheet for FSV Zwickau, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 10–26–64
65′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
69′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–2 · 7–25–68
75′We said FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
FTFULL TIME FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2–2 FSV Zwickau
FTFC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 2–2 FSV Zwickau · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 58%, draw 21%, FSV Zwickau 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v FSV ZwickauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win58%

Draw21%

FSV Zwickau win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

FSV Zwickau

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	12	+23	27
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc rot-weiß erfurt winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

58% The market59%

Us58%

~~Market~~59%

We make FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt v FSV Zwickau~~2.17 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 18~~2 v 9

~~The market · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win~~59% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win	58%	59%	−1
Draw	21%	22%	−1
FSV Zwickau win	21%	19%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt or draw	79%	81%	−2
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt clean sheet	30%	–	–
FSV Zwickau clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 3.9 2.6 1 7.0 9.3 5.5 2.3 2 7.8 9.5 5.8 2.4 3 5.6 6.8 4.1 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt down, FSV Zwickau across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,712 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt at home: 3.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FSV Zwickau away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt, 1.23 for FSV Zwickau. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FSV 2–1 FCR · FCR 2–2 FSV · FSV 3–2 FCR · FCR 4–2 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 29 Aug

FC ROT-WEISS ERFURT

DWWDWL1–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 1–3

FSV ZWICKAU

WDLLDW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	+22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	12	+23	27
3	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
4	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
6	Greifswalder FC	12	+8	22
7	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	12	0	16
11	SV Babelsberg 03	12	−3	13
12	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	12	−12	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	12	−17	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5