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FC Carl Zeiss Jena v Magdeburg II

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

2–1Full time

Magdeburg II

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 Magdeburg II FC CARL ZEISS JENA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena win~~62%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.222

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Carl Zeiss Jena win at 62%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Carl Zeiss Jena v Magdeburg II
3′Much as we predicted: FC Carl Zeiss Jena was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–19–19
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–0 Magdeburg II
43′E. Munser scores for FC Carl Zeiss Jena on 37′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 62% at kick-off, 81% now
45′We published FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 62%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′HALF-TIME FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–0 Magdeburg II
46′SECOND HALF FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–0 Magdeburg II
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 62% at kick-off, 83% now
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–1 Magdeburg II
80′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–1 Magdeburg II · E. Munser
80′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1–1 Magdeburg II · A. Sivic
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 Magdeburg II
86′FC Carl Zeiss Jena ahead on 82′ through T. Burmeister. 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 62% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 Magdeburg II
FTFC Carl Zeiss Jena 2–1 Magdeburg II · FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win62%

Draw20%

Magdeburg II win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc carl zeiss jena winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

62% The market56%

Us62%

~~Market~~56%

We make FC Carl Zeiss Jena a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc carl zeiss jena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Carl Zeiss Jena win	62%	56%	+5
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Magdeburg II win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	65%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	83%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw	81%	79%	+2
FC Carl Zeiss Jena clean sheet	30%	–	–
Magdeburg II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 3.3 2.2 1 6.4 8.4 5.0 2.1 2 7.7 9.3 5.7 2.3 3 6.0 7.2 4.4 4 3.5 4.2 2.6 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Carl Zeiss Jena down, Magdeburg II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,706 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Magdeburg II away: 2.00 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena, 1.22 for Magdeburg II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAG 4–1 FCC · FCC 2–1 MAG

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

FC CARL ZEISS JENA

DWWLLW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 5–1

MAGDEBURG II

WWLLLL1–0 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
4	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
5	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
6	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	+9	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	11	−3	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	11	−3	10
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
15	Hertha BSC II	11	−12	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5