Home › Football › Regionalliga - Nordost › FC Carl Zeiss Jena v BFC Dynamo

FC Carl Zeiss Jena v BFC Dynamo

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

0–0Full time

BFC Dynamo

Regionalliga - Nordost · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0–0 BFC Dynamo FC CARL ZEISS JENA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena win~~52%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Carl Zeiss Jena win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF FC Carl Zeiss Jena v BFC Dynamo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0–0 BFC Dynamo
46′SECOND HALF FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0–0 BFC Dynamo
47′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–39–21
49′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–40–21
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Carl Zeiss Jena win 40%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–44–20
59′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
67′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
73′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
77′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–11
81′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
92′We said FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME FC Carl Zeiss Jena 0–0 BFC Dynamo
FTFC Carl Zeiss Jena 0–0 BFC Dynamo · FC Carl Zeiss Jena win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Carl Zeiss Jena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Carl Zeiss Jena 52%, draw 24%, BFC Dynamo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Carl Zeiss Jena v BFC DynamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Carl Zeiss Jena win52%

Draw24%

BFC Dynamo win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Carl Zeiss Jena

BFC Dynamo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	+9	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc carl zeiss jena winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

52% The market45%

Us52%

~~Market~~45%

We make FC Carl Zeiss Jena a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Carl Zeiss Jena v BFC Dynamo~~1.75 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 25~~4 v 5

~~The market · FC Carl Zeiss Jena win~~45% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Carl Zeiss Jena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Carl Zeiss Jena win	52%	45%	+7
Draw	24%	25%	−1
BFC Dynamo win	23%	30%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
FC Carl Zeiss Jena or draw	77%	70%	+7
FC Carl Zeiss Jena clean sheet	34%	–	–
BFC Dynamo clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 6.1 3.5 1 9.9 11.4 6.0 2.2 2 8.9 9.5 5.2 3 5.2 5.6 3.0 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Carl Zeiss Jena down, BFC Dynamo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,721 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). BFC Dynamo away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for FC Carl Zeiss Jena, 1.09 for BFC Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCC 2–1 BFC · BFC 2–3 FCC · FCC 1–1 BFC · BFC 2–3 FCC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 10 Sept

FC CARL ZEISS JENA

WLLWWW3–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

BFC DYNAMO

WDWWWD3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	+22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	+9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	+2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	−2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6