Erzgebirge Aue v Hallescher FC prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Erzgebirge Aue 0–1 Hallescher FC HALLESCHER FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hallescher FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.498

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hallescher FC win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hallescher FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 28–26–45
1′KICK-OFF Erzgebirge Aue v Hallescher FC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hallescher FC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Erzgebirge Aue 0–0 Hallescher FC
46′SECOND HALF Erzgebirge Aue 0–0 Hallescher FC
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hallescher FC win 35%)
50′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 24–42–34
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 23–45–32
61′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–50–29
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Hallescher FC win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
69′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 17–58–24
75′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–67–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Hallescher FC win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
80′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
84′We said Hallescher FC at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Hallescher FC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
89′Hallescher FC find the net on 88′. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
89′We published Hallescher FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Erzgebirge Aue 0–1 Hallescher FC
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Hallescher FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Hallescher FC win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
FTFULL TIME Erzgebirge Aue 0–1 Hallescher FC
FTErzgebirge Aue 0–1 Hallescher FC · Hallescher FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hallescher FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erzgebirge Aue 28%, draw 26%, Hallescher FC 46%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Erzgebirge Aue v Hallescher FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Erzgebirge Aue win28%

Draw26%

Hallescher FC win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

VenueErzgebirgsstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erzgebirge Aue

Hallescher FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hallescher fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Hallescher FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erzgebirge Aue v Hallescher FC~~1.17 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 25~~8 v 4

~~The market · Hallescher FC win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hallescher FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erzgebirge Aue win	28%	34%	−6
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Hallescher FC win	46%	43%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	62%	−11
Both teams to score	54%	63%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Erzgebirge Aue or draw	54%	57%	−3
Erzgebirge Aue clean sheet	22%	–	–
Hallescher FC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 9.8 7.9 4.1 1 7.3 12.2 9.0 4.7 2 4.6 6.8 5.2 2.7 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erzgebirge Aue down, Hallescher FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erzgebirge Aue at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hallescher FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Erzgebirge Aue, 1.55 for Hallescher FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAL 2–3 ERZ · ERZ 3–1 HAL · HAL 5–2 ERZ · ERZ 1–1 HAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 30 Aug

ERZGEBIRGE AUE

WWWDLL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

HALLESCHER FC

WDWWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	+22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
4	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
5	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	12	+8	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6