Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Regionalliga - Nordost › Chemnitzer FC v Magdeburg II

Back
Germany flag

Chemnitzer FC v Magdeburg II

Chemnitzer FC
1–2Full time
Magdeburg II

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Chemnitzer FC 1–2 Magdeburg II CHEMNITZER FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chemnitzer FC win58%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.990
The market’s Brier score1.145

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chemnitzer FC win at 58%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Chemnitzer FC was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chemnitzer FC v Magdeburg II
  4. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  5. 44′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–32–21
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Chemnitzer FC 0–0 Magdeburg II
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Chemnitzer FC 0–0 Magdeburg II
  8. 49′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–21
  9. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 41–39–20
  10. 59′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–19
  11. 60′Chemnitzer FC find the net on 60′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  12. 60′We published Chemnitzer FC at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
  13. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  14. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Chemnitzer FC 1–0 Magdeburg II
  15. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
  16. 68′A goal for Magdeburg II on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–51–17
  17. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Chemnitzer FC 1–1 Magdeburg II
  18. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 32% now
  19. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Chemnitzer FC win 83%)
  20. 69′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–52–16
  21. 72′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
  22. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
  23. 76′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  24. 80′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  25. 82′Magdeburg II score on 81′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–84
  26. 82′We said Chemnitzer FC at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–14–84
  27. 82′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–2 · 1–14–84
  28. 82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Chemnitzer FC 1–2 Magdeburg II
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Chemnitzer FC win: 58% at kick-off, 1% now
  30. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Magdeburg II win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 71%)
  31. FTFULL TIME Chemnitzer FC 1–2 Magdeburg II
  32. FTChemnitzer FC 1–2 Magdeburg II · Chemnitzer FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chemnitzer FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chemnitzer FC 58%, draw 21%, Magdeburg II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Chemnitzer FC v Magdeburg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chemnitzer FC win58%
Draw21%
Magdeburg II win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chemnitzer FC

Magdeburg II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chemnitzer FC13+2230
11Magdeburg II13−216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemnitzer fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off
58% The market64%
Us58%
Market64%

We make Chemnitzer FC a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chemnitzer FC v Magdeburg II2.17 – 1.26
Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 30 v 161 v 11
The market · Chemnitzer FC win64% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:18
Our probability · Chemnitzer FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chemnitzer FC win58%64%−6
Draw21%20%+1
Magdeburg II win22%16%+6
Over 2.5 goals66%66%0
Both teams to score63%60%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%84%+1
Over 3.5 goals45%45%0
Chemnitzer FC or draw78%84%−6
Chemnitzer FC clean sheet29%––
Magdeburg II clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%
0123450 3.8 3.9 2.7 1 6.8 9.2 5.5 2.4 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.5 6.7 4.2 4 3.0 3.7 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chemnitzer FC down, Magdeburg II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsMAG 0–1 CHE · CHE 2–4 MAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 Sept

CHEMNITZER FC

WLWWWD2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

MAGDEBURG II

LLLLLW1–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Chemnitzer FC13+2230
2FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt13+2328
3Hallescher FC13+1128
4Altglienicke14+927
5FC Carl Zeiss Jena14+1126
6BFC Dynamo14+926
7Greifswalder FC13+622
8Erzgebirge Aue13+221
9FSV Zwickau13−219
10Lokomotive Leipzig13017
11Magdeburg II13−216
12SV Babelsberg 0314−816
13BFC Preussen14−611
14BSG Chemie Leipzig13−710
15Hertha BSC II13−1310
16RSV Eintracht13−169
17Tasmania Berlin13−198
18Luckenwalde14−206

The competition's standings before kick-off.