Chemnitzer FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Chemnitzer FC 3–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt CHEMNITZER FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chemnitzer FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.543

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chemnitzer FC win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Chemnitzer FC v FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
3′Little has changed for our model: Chemnitzer FC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
6′Little has changed for our model: Chemnitzer FC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Chemnitzer FC 1–0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
45′HALF-TIME Chemnitzer FC 1–0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
46′SECOND HALF Chemnitzer FC 1–0 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Chemnitzer FC 1–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chemnitzer FC 2–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Chemnitzer FC 3–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FTFULL TIME Chemnitzer FC 3–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
FTChemnitzer FC 3–1 FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · Chemnitzer FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chemnitzer FC win40%

Draw24%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chemnitzer FC

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

15Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemnitzer fc winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Chemnitzer FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chemnitzer fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chemnitzer FC win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−1
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win	35%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	43%	−4
Chemnitzer FC or draw	65%	65%	−1
Chemnitzer FC clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 4.9 6.2 5.0 2.5 1 6.7 11.0 7.9 4.0 2 5.7 8.5 6.4 3.2 3 3.1 4.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chemnitzer FC down, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,708 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chemnitzer FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Chemnitzer FC, 1.52 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–4 FCR · FCR 2–2 CHE · CHE 2–0 FCR · FCR 0–0 CHE

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

CHEMNITZER FC

WDWLWW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–0

FC ROT-WEISS ERFURT

WDWWDW5–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
5	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
6	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
7	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	12	−12	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5