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BSG Chemie Leipzig v Luckenwalde

BSG Chemie Leipzig

1–3Full time

Luckenwalde

Regionalliga - Nordost · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–3 Luckenwalde BSG CHEMIE LEIPZIG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BSG Chemie Leipzig win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.782

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BSG Chemie Leipzig win at 48%.
26′Luckenwalde ahead on 13′ through L. Will. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–26–57
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' BSG Chemie Leipzig win: 48% at kick-off, 17% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Luckenwalde win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was BSG Chemie Leipzig win 17%)
39′We said BSG Chemie Leipzig at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–62
45′HALF-TIME BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–1 Luckenwalde
45′⚽ GOAL · 13' BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–1 Luckenwalde · L. Will
46′SECOND HALF BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–1 Luckenwalde
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–2 Luckenwalde
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' BSG Chemie Leipzig 0–3 Luckenwalde
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–3 Luckenwalde
FTBSG Chemie Leipzig 1–3 Luckenwalde · BSG Chemie Leipzig win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

BSG Chemie Leipzig win48%

Draw27%

Luckenwalde win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bsg chemie leipzig winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make BSG Chemie Leipzig a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BSG Chemie Leipzig win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Luckenwalde win	25%	30%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	44%	73%	−28
Both teams to score	48%	71%	−23
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	52%	−29
BSG Chemie Leipzig or draw	75%	70%	+5
BSG Chemie Leipzig clean sheet	38%	–	–
Luckenwalde clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.4 7.9 4.1 1 12.2 12.8 6.0 2 9.3 8.9 4.4 3 4.6 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BSG Chemie Leipzig down, Luckenwalde across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,703 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BSG Chemie Leipzig at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Luckenwalde away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for BSG Chemie Leipzig, 0.98 for Luckenwalde. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BSG 1–0 LUC · LUC 1–0 BSG · BSG 1–3 LUC · LUC 0–0 BSG

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

BSG CHEMIE LEIPZIG

LDDWLW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 5–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

LUCKENWALDE

LLLLLL0–5 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
4	BFC Dynamo	11	+8	21
5	Altglienicke	11	+6	21
6	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	+9	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
10	FSV Zwickau	11	−4	15
11	Magdeburg II	11	−3	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	11	−3	10
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	11	−5	9
15	Hertha BSC II	11	−12	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Tasmania Berlin	11	−23	5
18	Luckenwalde	11	−19	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

The table