BSG Chemie Leipzig v Hertha BSC II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BSG Chemie LeipzigDrawHertha BSC II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BSG Chemie Leipzig 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BSG Chemie Leipzig are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BSG Chemie Leipzig 44%, draw 26%, Hertha BSC II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on BSG Chemie Leipzig v Hertha BSC IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

BSG Chemie Leipzig win44%

Draw26%

Hertha BSC II win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BSG Chemie Leipzig

Hertha BSC II

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 16 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bsg chemie leipzig winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make BSG Chemie Leipzig a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BSG Chemie Leipzig v Hertha BSC II~~1.57 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~15 v 16

~~The market · BSG Chemie Leipzig win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BSG Chemie Leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BSG Chemie Leipzig win	44%	44%	0
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Hertha BSC II win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	31%	0
BSG Chemie Leipzig or draw	70%	69%	+1
BSG Chemie Leipzig clean sheet	29%	–	–
Hertha BSC II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 7.1 4.7 1 9.0 12.0 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 3.9 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BSG Chemie Leipzig down, Hertha BSC II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BSG Chemie Leipzig at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hertha BSC II away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for BSG Chemie Leipzig, 1.25 for Hertha BSC II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HER 0–1 BSG · BSG 3–1 HER · BSG 2–2 HER · HER 1–2 BSG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 12 Sept

BSG CHEMIE LEIPZIG

DWLWLD2–2 · 5–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

HERTHA BSC II

LLWDDL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	+24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	+21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	+5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	+5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	−1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	−18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	−17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6