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BFC Preussen v Hertha BSC II

BFC Preussen

1–1Full time

Hertha BSC II

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II BFC PREUSSEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said BFC Preussen win~~48%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.891

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.909

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BFC Preussen win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BFC Preussen 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF BFC Preussen v Hertha BSC II
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' BFC Preussen 0–1 Hertha BSC II
22′4′ and it is 0–1: J. Ndi on the scoresheet for Hertha BSC II. 0–1 · 21–24–55
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' BFC Preussen win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Hertha BSC II win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was BFC Preussen win 21%)
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II
45′BFC Preussen ahead on 33′ through E. Aksakal. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–35–26
45′HALF-TIME BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' BFC Preussen win: 48% at kick-off, 39% now
46′SECOND HALF BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II
47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 38–36–25
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' BFC Preussen win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
65′We said BFC Preussen at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–50–21
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Hertha BSC II win 21%)
81′⚽ GOAL · 4' BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II · J. Ndi
81′⚽ GOAL · 33' BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II · E. Aksakal
87′We said BFC Preussen at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–90–4
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' BFC Preussen win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
FTFULL TIME BFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II
FTBFC Preussen 1–1 Hertha BSC II · BFC Preussen win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

BFC Preussen win48%

Draw24%

Hertha BSC II win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bfc preussen winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

48% The market43%

Us48%

~~Market~~43%

We make BFC Preussen a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFC Preussen win	48%	43%	+5
Draw	24%	22%	+1
Hertha BSC II win	28%	35%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Both teams to score	61%	69%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	48%	−10
BFC Preussen or draw	72%	65%	+6
BFC Preussen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hertha BSC II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 5.5 3.9 1 7.5 10.8 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 9.2 6.1 2.8 3 4.2 5.5 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFC Preussen down, Hertha BSC II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,706 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 102 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFC Preussen at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hertha BSC II away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for BFC Preussen, 1.34 for Hertha BSC II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HER 5–0 BFC · BFC 0–0 HER

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

BFC PREUSSEN

LDWWDL0–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

HERTHA BSC II

DLLLWD0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
4	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
5	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
6	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	+9	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	−2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	11	−3	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	11	−3	10
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
15	Hertha BSC II	11	−12	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	−25	5