BFC Preussen v FSV Zwickau prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BFC PreussenDrawFSV Zwickau

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · BFC Preussen 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with BFC Preussen just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: BFC Preussen 38%, draw 26%, FSV Zwickau 36%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on BFC Preussen v FSV ZwickauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

BFC Preussen win38%

Draw26%

FSV Zwickau win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BFC Preussen

FSV Zwickau

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bfc preussen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make BFC Preussen a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BFC Preussen v FSV Zwickau~~1.45 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~13 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFC Preussen win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
FSV Zwickau win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
BFC Preussen or draw	64%	–	–
BFC Preussen clean sheet	25%	–	–
FSV Zwickau clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 7.7 5.7 2.7 1 8.0 12.0 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.4 5.8 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFC Preussen down, FSV Zwickau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.1% of games this season, across 124 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFC Preussen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FSV Zwickau away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for BFC Preussen, 1.40 for FSV Zwickau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FSV 1–0 BFC · BFC 3–2 FSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 15 Sept

BFC PREUSSEN

WDLDLL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

FSV ZWICKAU

LLDWDL1–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	+24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	+21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	+9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	+11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	+9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	+5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	+5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	−1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	−5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	−8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	−6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	−18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	−17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	−20	6