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BFC Preussen v Altglienicke

BFC Preussen

1–3Full time

Altglienicke

Regionalliga - Nordost · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

BFC Preussen 1–3 Altglienicke ALTGLIENICKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altglienicke win~~42%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Altglienicke win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Altglienicke was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–26–41
1′KICK-OFF BFC Preussen v Altglienicke
3′Altglienicke score on 3′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–18–68
3′We published Altglienicke at 42%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 14–18–68
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' BFC Preussen 0–1 Altglienicke
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Altglienicke win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
23′Altglienicke find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
23′We published Altglienicke at 42%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' BFC Preussen 0–2 Altglienicke
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Altglienicke win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
29′We published Altglienicke at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Altglienicke win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
44′Altglienicke ahead on 24′ through J. Nietfeld. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
45′HALF-TIME BFC Preussen 0–2 Altglienicke
46′SECOND HALF BFC Preussen 0–2 Altglienicke
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
56′We published Altglienicke at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
75′A goal for BFC Preussen on 75′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–85
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' BFC Preussen 1–2 Altglienicke
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Altglienicke win: 42% at kick-off, 85% now
76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–13–85
77′Altglienicke score on 76′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' BFC Preussen 1–3 Altglienicke
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Altglienicke win: 42% at kick-off, 99% now
80′82′: L. Inderwisch on the scoresheet for BFC Preussen, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
82′84′: T. Rieder on the scoresheet for Altglienicke, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
83′We published Altglienicke at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME BFC Preussen 1–3 Altglienicke
FTBFC Preussen 1–3 Altglienicke · Altglienicke win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Altglienicke are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BFC Preussen 32%, draw 26%, Altglienicke 42%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on BFC Preussen v AltglienickeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BFC Preussen win32%

Draw26%

Altglienicke win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BFC Preussen

Altglienicke

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altglienicke winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market52%

Us42%

~~Market~~52%

We make Altglienicke a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BFC Preussen v Altglienicke~~1.29 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 21~~13 v 7

~~The market · Altglienicke win~~52% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Altglienicke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFC Preussen win	32%	25%	+7
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Altglienicke win	42%	52%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
BFC Preussen or draw	58%	48%	+10
BFC Preussen clean sheet	23%	–	–
Altglienicke clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.9 8.9 6.9 3.5 1 7.6 12.2 8.7 4.4 2 5.2 7.5 5.6 2.8 3 2.2 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFC Preussen down, Altglienicke across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,715 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.3% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFC Preussen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Altglienicke away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for BFC Preussen, 1.49 for Altglienicke. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALT 1–0 BFC · BFC 1–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 29 Aug

BFC PREUSSEN

DWWDLD1–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

ALTGLIENICKE

LLWWWL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	+22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
4	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	+10	22
6	Greifswalder FC	12	+8	22
7	Altglienicke	12	+5	21
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	12	0	16
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	12	−3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	−7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	12	−17	6