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BFC Dynamo v Chemnitzer FC

BFC Dynamo

1–1Full time

Chemnitzer FC

Regionalliga - Nordost · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

BFC Dynamo 1–1 Chemnitzer FC CHEMNITZER FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Chemnitzer FC win~~39%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chemnitzer FC win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chemnitzer FC 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–27–39
1′KICK-OFF BFC Dynamo v Chemnitzer FC
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chemnitzer FC win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME BFC Dynamo 0–0 Chemnitzer FC
46′SECOND HALF BFC Dynamo 0–0 Chemnitzer FC
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Chemnitzer FC win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 26–46–28
57′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–47–27
64′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
72′A goal for BFC Dynamo on 71′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–17–3
72′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 81–17–3
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' BFC Dynamo 1–0 Chemnitzer FC
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Chemnitzer FC win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' BFC Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
73′BFC Dynamo score on 72′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
73′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' BFC Dynamo 2–0 Chemnitzer FC
74′Chemnitzer FC score on 74′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 16–66–18
74′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 16–66–18
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' BFC Dynamo 1–1 Chemnitzer FC
75′GOAL DISALLOWED · 75' BFC Dynamo
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Chemnitzer FC win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was BFC Dynamo win 16%)
78′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–72–14
83′We said Chemnitzer FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chemnitzer FC win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
FTFULL TIME BFC Dynamo 1–1 Chemnitzer FC
FTBFC Dynamo 1–1 Chemnitzer FC · Chemnitzer FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chemnitzer FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: BFC Dynamo 35%, draw 27%, Chemnitzer FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on BFC Dynamo v Chemnitzer FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BFC Dynamo win35%

Draw27%

Chemnitzer FC win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundNordost · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BFC Dynamo

Chemnitzer FC

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chemnitzer fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Chemnitzer FC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BFC Dynamo v Chemnitzer FC~~1.29 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 29~~5 v 1

~~The market · Chemnitzer FC win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chemnitzer FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BFC Dynamo win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Chemnitzer FC win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	63%	−13
Both teams to score	54%	64%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	41%	−13
BFC Dynamo or draw	61%	54%	+7
BFC Dynamo clean sheet	26%	–	–
Chemnitzer FC clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.6 9.1 6.6 3.1 1 8.5 12.6 8.3 3.9 2 5.8 7.8 5.4 2.5 3 2.5 3.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BFC Dynamo down, Chemnitzer FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BFC Dynamo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chemnitzer FC away: 2.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for BFC Dynamo, 1.38 for Chemnitzer FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BFC 2–2 CHE · CHE 1–1 BFC · CHE 2–1 BFC · BFC 0–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 28 Aug

BFC DYNAMO

WWDWWW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

CHEMNITZER FC

DWLWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	+22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
4	Hallescher FC	12	+10	25
5	BFC Dynamo	12	+9	24
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	12	+8	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	+3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	12	−4	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6