Altglienicke v Luckenwalde prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Altglienicke 3–1 Luckenwalde ALTGLIENICKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altglienicke win~~60%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.236

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Altglienicke win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Altglienicke 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–23–17
1′KICK-OFF Altglienicke v Luckenwalde
21′Altglienicke find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
21′We said Altglienicke at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Altglienicke 1–0 Luckenwalde
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Altglienicke win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
26′Altglienicke ahead on 22′ through J. Hartl. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
33′A goal for Altglienicke on 33′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Altglienicke 2–0 Luckenwalde
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Altglienicke win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
34′We said Altglienicke at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
36′J. Saliger scores for Altglienicke on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Altglienicke 2–0 Luckenwalde
46′SECOND HALF Altglienicke 2–0 Luckenwalde
63′Altglienicke score on 62′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′We said Altglienicke at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Altglienicke 3–0 Luckenwalde
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Altglienicke win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′Luckenwalde find the net on 81′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Altglienicke 3–1 Luckenwalde
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Altglienicke 3–1 Luckenwalde
FTAltglienicke 3–1 Luckenwalde · Altglienicke win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Altglienicke are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Altglienicke 60%, draw 23%, Luckenwalde 17%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Altglienicke v LuckenwaldeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Altglienicke win60%

Draw23%

Luckenwalde win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundNordost · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Altglienicke

Luckenwalde

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nordost

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altglienicke winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

60% The market65%

Us60%

~~Market~~65%

We make Altglienicke a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Altglienicke v Luckenwalde~~1.85 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 24 v 6~~6 v 18

~~The market · Altglienicke win~~65% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Altglienicke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altglienicke win	60%	65%	−5
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Luckenwalde win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
Altglienicke or draw	83%	86%	−3
Altglienicke clean sheet	43%	–	–
Luckenwalde clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 7.3 5.4 2.5 1 12.1 10.8 4.4 2 11.4 9.5 4.0 3 7.1 5.9 2.5 4 3.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altglienicke down, Luckenwalde across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,721 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altglienicke at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Luckenwalde away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Altglienicke, 0.85 for Luckenwalde. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–2 LUC · LUC 1–3 ALT · LUC 0–0 ALT · ALT 0–0 LUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost this season · since 11 Sept

ALTGLIENICKE

LWWWLW0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

LUCKENWALDE

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	+22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	+23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	+11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	+11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	+9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	+7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	+6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	+2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	−2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	−2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	−9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	−5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	−7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	−13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	−16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	−19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	−18	6