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Altglienicke v BFC Dynamo

Altglienicke

0–1Full time

BFC Dynamo

Regionalliga - Nordost · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Altglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo ALTGLIENICKE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Altglienicke win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.678

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Altglienicke win at 45%.
29′Little has changed for our model: Altglienicke 45% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Altglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo
41′BFC Dynamo ahead on 30′ through D. Gunay. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–25–62
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Altglienicke win: 45% at kick-off, 13% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' BFC Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Altglienicke win 13%)
45′We said Altglienicke at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–25–64
45′HALF-TIME Altglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo
45′⚽ GOAL · 30' Altglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo · D. Gunay
46′SECOND HALF Altglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo
FTAltglienicke 0–1 BFC Dynamo · Altglienicke win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Altglienicke win45%

Draw26%

BFC Dynamo win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · altglienicke winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Altglienicke a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Altglienicke win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	26%	22%	+4
BFC Dynamo win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	72%	−21
Both teams to score	54%	71%	−17
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	51%	−22
Altglienicke or draw	71%	66%	+5
Altglienicke clean sheet	31%	–	–
BFC Dynamo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 7.3 4.6 1 9.7 12.3 6.9 2.8 2 7.8 9.0 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Altglienicke down, BFC Dynamo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,703 Regionalliga - Nordost matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nordost matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Altglienicke at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). BFC Dynamo away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Altglienicke, 1.18 for BFC Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BFC 1–1 ALT · ALT 0–0 BFC · BFC 3–0 ALT · ALT 1–0 BFC

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

ALTGLIENICKE

DLLWWW1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

BFC DYNAMO

WWWDWW2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	+25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	+20	26
3	Hallescher FC	11	+9	22
4	BFC Dynamo	11	+8	21
5	Altglienicke	11	+6	21
6	Erzgebirge Aue	11	+4	21
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	+9	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	+7	19
9	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	0	15
10	FSV Zwickau	11	−4	15
11	Magdeburg II	11	−3	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	−3	12
13	BFC Preussen	11	−3	10
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	11	−5	9
15	Hertha BSC II	11	−12	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	−16	6
17	Tasmania Berlin	11	−23	5
18	Luckenwalde	11	−19	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nordost

The table