Werder Bremen II v Hamburger SV II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Werder Bremen IIDrawHamburger SV II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Werder Bremen II 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Werder Bremen II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Werder Bremen II 44%, draw 23%, Hamburger SV II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Werder Bremen II v Hamburger SV IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Werder Bremen II win44%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV II win33%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorth · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Werder Bremen II

Hamburger SV II

4Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
14	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · werder bremen ii winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Werder Bremen II a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Werder Bremen II v Hamburger SV II~~1.87 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Werder Bremen II win

Published at 43%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Werder Bremen II win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Hamburger SV II win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Werder Bremen II or draw	67%	–	–
Werder Bremen II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Hamburger SV II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.1 1 5.4 9.9 7.3 3.9 2 5.6 8.5 6.7 3.6 3 3.5 5.3 4.2 2.2 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Werder Bremen II down, Hamburger SV II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Werder Bremen II at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hamburger SV II away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Werder Bremen II, 1.58 for Hamburger SV II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WER 2–1 HAM · HAM 6–2 WER · HAM 1–4 WER · WER 5–0 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept

WERDER BREMEN II

WWLDLW4–2 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2

HAMBURGER SV II

LLWLWL0–4 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	+14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	+21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	−8	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
13	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
14	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
15	SSV Jeddeloh	14	−14	13
16	Todesfelde	14	−21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8