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Weiche Flensburg v SV Drochtersen/Assel

Weiche Flensburg

3–0Full time

SV Drochtersen/Assel

Regionalliga - Nord · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Weiche Flensburg 3–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Drochtersen/Assel win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.685

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.685

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Drochtersen/Assel win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SV Drochtersen/Assel 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 34–21–45
1′KICK-OFF Weiche Flensburg v SV Drochtersen/Assel
3′Weiche Flensburg score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 55–20–25
3′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 55–20–25
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Weiche Flensburg 1–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 25% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Weiche Flensburg win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was SV Drochtersen/Assel win 25%)
4′GOAL DISALLOWED · 4' Weiche Flensburg
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' SV Drochtersen/Assel win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Weiche Flensburg win 34%)
6′Weiche Flensburg score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–20–24
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Weiche Flensburg 1–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Weiche Flensburg win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was SV Drochtersen/Assel win 24%)
7′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 56–20–24
12′GOAL DISALLOWED · 12' Weiche Flensburg
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' SV Drochtersen/Assel win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Weiche Flensburg win 34%)
36′Weiche Flensburg score on 36′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
36′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Weiche Flensburg 1–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Weiche Flensburg win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was SV Drochtersen/Assel win 17%)
40′33′: M. Cornils on the scoresheet for Weiche Flensburg, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–16
45′HALF-TIME Weiche Flensburg 2–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
46′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
46′Weiche Flensburg find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
46′We said SV Drochtersen/Assel at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
46′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 2–0 · 86–10–4
46′Weiche Flensburg ahead on 43′ through E. Krasniqi. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Weiche Flensburg 2–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' SV Drochtersen/Assel win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
46′SECOND HALF Weiche Flensburg 2–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
87′A goal for Weiche Flensburg on 87′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Weiche Flensburg 3–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
90′I. Ali scores for Weiche Flensburg on 85′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Weiche Flensburg 3–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel
FTWeiche Flensburg 3–0 SV Drochtersen/Assel · SV Drochtersen/Assel win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SV Drochtersen/Assel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Weiche Flensburg 34%, draw 22%, SV Drochtersen/Assel 44%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Weiche Flensburg v SV Drochtersen/AsselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Weiche Flensburg win34%

Draw22%

SV Drochtersen/Assel win44%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundNorth · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weiche Flensburg

SV Drochtersen/Assel

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sv drochtersen/assel winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make SV Drochtersen/Assel a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Weiche Flensburg v SV Drochtersen/Assel~~1.76 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 28~~1 v 2

~~The market · SV Drochtersen/Assel win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SV Drochtersen/Assel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weiche Flensburg win	34%	33%	+1
Draw	22%	24%	−2
SV Drochtersen/Assel win	44%	43%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Both teams to score	71%	69%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	86%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	52%	49%	+3
Weiche Flensburg or draw	56%	57%	−1
Weiche Flensburg clean sheet	14%	–	–
SV Drochtersen/Assel clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 4.3 4.7 3.2 1 3.6 8.6 8.0 5.4 2.8 2 3.6 6.9 6.9 4.7 2.4 3 2.1 4.1 4.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weiche Flensburg down, SV Drochtersen/Assel across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,571 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.9% of games this season, across 113 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Weiche Flensburg at home: 3.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SV Drochtersen/Assel away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Weiche Flensburg, 2.03 for SV Drochtersen/Assel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SVD 3–1 WEI · WEI 3–2 SVD · SVD 3–0 WEI · WEI 1–0 SVD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept

WEICHE FLENSBURG

WLLWWW4–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 4–0

SV DROCHTERSEN/ASSEL

WWWDWW3–0 · 8–2 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 7–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	13	+26	31
2	SV Drochtersen/Assel	13	+25	28
3	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
4	Phönix Lübeck	12	+24	26
5	VfB Oldenburg	12	+20	25
6	Schöningen	13	0	24
7	Kickers Emden	13	−4	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
10	VfB Lübeck	13	−6	15
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
14	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
15	Todesfelde	13	−21	11
16	St. Pauli II	12	−2	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	13	−15	10
18	Bremer SV	12	−15	8