VfB Oldenburg v Kickers Emden prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

VfB Oldenburg 4–0 Kickers Emden VFB OLDENBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfB Oldenburg win~~61%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.228

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.301

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Oldenburg win at 61%.
1′KICK-OFF VfB Oldenburg v Kickers Emden
3′Little has changed for our model: VfB Oldenburg 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–17–21
5′Little has changed for our model: VfB Oldenburg 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–18–21
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' VfB Oldenburg 1–0 Kickers Emden
45′HALF-TIME VfB Oldenburg 1–0 Kickers Emden
46′SECOND HALF VfB Oldenburg 1–0 Kickers Emden
56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Kickers Emden
59′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Kickers Emden
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' VfB Oldenburg 2–0 Kickers Emden
70′⚽ GOAL · 60' VfB Oldenburg 2–0 Kickers Emden · M. Facklam
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' VfB Oldenburg 3–0 Kickers Emden
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' VfB Oldenburg 4–0 Kickers Emden · L. Demaj
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' VfB Oldenburg 4–0 Kickers Emden
FTFULL TIME VfB Oldenburg 4–0 Kickers Emden
FTVfB Oldenburg 4–0 Kickers Emden · VfB Oldenburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

VfB Oldenburg win61%

Draw18%

Kickers Emden win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueMarschweg-Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

VfB Oldenburg

Kickers Emden

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb oldenburg winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

61% The market55%

Us61%

~~Market~~55%

We make VfB Oldenburg a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vfb oldenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Oldenburg win	61%	55%	+6
Draw	18%	22%	−4
Kickers Emden win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Both teams to score	75%	70%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	93%	87%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	64%	54%	+10
VfB Oldenburg or draw	79%	77%	+2
VfB Oldenburg clean sheet	20%	–	–
Kickers Emden clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 3.1 5.9 4.5 2.5 2 4.6 7.4 6.0 3.3 3 4.2 6.7 5.4 3.0 4 3.0 4.7 3.8 2.1 5 2.7 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Oldenburg down, Kickers Emden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.2% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfB Oldenburg at home: 3.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kickers Emden away: 2.67 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.82 goals for VfB Oldenburg, 1.65 for Kickers Emden. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KIC 4–2 VFB · VFB 2–1 KIC · KIC 1–1 VFB · VFB 0–3 KIC

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord

VFB OLDENBURG

WLWWLL7–3 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 2–3

KICKERS EMDEN

WWLWWL3–2 · 4–1 · 2–8 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	12	+22	28
2	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	12	+22	25
4	Schöningen	13	0	24
5	Phönix Lübeck	11	+21	23
6	VfB Oldenburg	11	+16	22
7	Kickers Emden	12	0	18
8	Atlas Delmenhorst	12	−3	16
9	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
10	Eintracht Norderstedt	11	−4	13
11	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
12	HSC Hannover	12	−9	13
13	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
14	VfB Lübeck	12	−7	12
15	Todesfelde	12	−17	11
16	St. Pauli II	11	−1	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	12	−14	10
18	Bremer SV	11	−12	8