VfB Oldenburg v HSC Hannover prediction · Regionalliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

VfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover VFB OLDENBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfB Oldenburg win~~77%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.082

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.140

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Oldenburg win at 77%.
1′Little has changed for our model: VfB Oldenburg 77% before kick-off, 77% now. 0–0 · 77–13–10
1′KICK-OFF VfB Oldenburg v HSC Hannover
11′A goal for HSC Hannover on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 55–19–26
11′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–1 · 55–19–26
11′F. Weigel scores for HSC Hannover on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 55–19–26
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' VfB Oldenburg 0–1 HSC Hannover
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' VfB Oldenburg win: 77% at kick-off, 55% now
13′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–1 · 54–20–26
23′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–22–29
25′VfB Oldenburg score on 24′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 70–18–12
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' VfB Oldenburg 1–1 HSC Hannover
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' VfB Oldenburg win: 77% at kick-off, 70% now
32′VfB Oldenburg find the net on 32′. 2–1. 2–1 · 88–9–4
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' VfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' VfB Oldenburg win: 77% at kick-off, 88% now
45′HALF-TIME VfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover
46′SECOND HALF VfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover
53′The goal count is tracking the 4.5 we expected. 2–1 · 87–11–3
73′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
77′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
86′We said VfB Oldenburg at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' VfB Oldenburg win: 77% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME VfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover
FTVfB Oldenburg 2–1 HSC Hannover · VfB Oldenburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfB Oldenburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfB Oldenburg 77%, draw 13%, HSC Hannover 10%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on VfB Oldenburg v HSC HannoverBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

VfB Oldenburg win77%

Draw13%

HSC Hannover win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundNorth · matchday 15

VenueMarschweg-Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfB Oldenburg

HSC Hannover

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	+21	28
10	HSC Hannover	14	−8	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb oldenburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

77% The market70%

Us77%

~~Market~~70%

We make VfB Oldenburg a 77% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfB Oldenburg v HSC Hannover~~3.30 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 17~~4 v 10

~~The market · VfB Oldenburg win~~70% · ours 77%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfB Oldenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Oldenburg win	77%	70%	+7
Draw	13%	17%	−4
HSC Hannover win	10%	14%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	81%	72%	+9
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	93%	88%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	64%	53%	+11
VfB Oldenburg or draw	90%	86%	+4
VfB Oldenburg clean sheet	31%	–	–
HSC Hannover clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.6%

0123450 1 3.7 4.9 2.7 2 6.2 7.2 4.3 3 6.6 7.6 4.5 4 5.4 6.2 3.6 5 3.6 4.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Oldenburg down, HSC Hannover across0–5 goals a side shown (87.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 121 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfB Oldenburg at home: 3.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). HSC Hannover away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.30 goals for VfB Oldenburg, 1.18 for HSC Hannover. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HSC 0–3 VFB · VFB 6–1 HSC · VFB 7–1 HSC · HSC 1–3 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 11 Sept

VFB OLDENBURG

WWLLWW4–3 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–1

HSC HANNOVER

DLLWWD3–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 4–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	14	+14	30
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
4	VfB Oldenburg	13	+21	28
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	14	−4	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	14	−8	17
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
14	SSV Jeddeloh	14	−14	13
15	Werder Bremen II	13	−5	12
16	Todesfelde	14	−21	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8