VfB Lübeck v Werder Bremen II prediction · Regionalliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VfB LübeckDrawWerder Bremen II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · VfB Lübeck 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfB Lübeck are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfB Lübeck 43%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on VfB Lübeck v Werder Bremen IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

VfB Lübeck win43%

Draw24%

Werder Bremen II win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfB Lübeck

Werder Bremen II

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 24 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb lübeck winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make VfB Lübeck a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfB Lübeck v Werder Bremen II~~1.76 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 16 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Lübeck win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Werder Bremen II win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
VfB Lübeck or draw	67%	–	–
VfB Lübeck clean sheet	23%	–	–
Werder Bremen II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 5.2 4.4 2.2 1 6.1 10.6 7.5 3.8 2 5.9 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 3.5 5.1 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Lübeck down, Werder Bremen II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfB Lübeck at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Werder Bremen II away: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for VfB Lübeck, 1.51 for Werder Bremen II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VFB 1–1 WER · WER 4–0 VFB · VFB 1–6 WER · WER 1–1 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 16 Sept

VFB LÜBECK

DWWDWW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

WERDER BREMEN II

WWLDLW4–2 · 5–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	+15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	+26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	+22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	+24	27
6	Schöningen	14	−2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	−5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	−3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	−9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	−4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	−14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	−14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	−8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	−9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	−25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	−5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8