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VfB Lübeck v St. Pauli II

VfB Lübeck

4–1Full time

St. Pauli II

Regionalliga - Nord · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

VfB Lübeck 4–1 St. Pauli II VFB LÜBECK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfB Lübeck win~~48%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.413

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.454

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfB Lübeck win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: VfB Lübeck 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF VfB Lübeck v St. Pauli II
6′VfB Lübeck find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–16–12
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' VfB Lübeck 1–0 St. Pauli II
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' VfB Lübeck win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
7′We said VfB Lübeck at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
44′St. Pauli II are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 75–18–7
44′We said VfB Lübeck at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
44′🟥 RED CARD · 43' St. Pauli II
45′HALF-TIME VfB Lübeck 1–0 St. Pauli II
46′SECOND HALF VfB Lübeck 1–0 St. Pauli II
48′A goal for VfB Lübeck on 48′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' VfB Lübeck 2–0 St. Pauli II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' VfB Lübeck win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
49′We said VfB Lübeck at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
52′VfB Lübeck score on 52′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
52′We said VfB Lübeck at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' VfB Lübeck 3–0 St. Pauli II
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' VfB Lübeck win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
54′53′: R. Demir on the scoresheet for VfB Lübeck, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
63′We said VfB Lübeck at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′VfB Lübeck find the net on 68′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' VfB Lübeck 4–0 St. Pauli II
82′A goal for St. Pauli II on 82′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' VfB Lübeck 4–1 St. Pauli II
83′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME VfB Lübeck 4–1 St. Pauli II
FTVfB Lübeck 4–1 St. Pauli II · VfB Lübeck win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfB Lübeck are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfB Lübeck 48%, draw 24%, St. Pauli II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on VfB Lübeck v St. Pauli IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

VfB Lübeck win48%

Draw24%

St. Pauli II win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorth · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfB Lübeck

St. Pauli II

5Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

Last match: 11 Oct · Regionalliga - Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	VfB Lübeck	13	−6	15
16	St. Pauli II	12	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vfb lübeck winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make VfB Lübeck a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfB Lübeck v St. Pauli II~~1.77 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~10 v 16

~~The market · VfB Lübeck win~~45% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfB Lübeck win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Lübeck win	48%	45%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
St. Pauli II win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	61%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
VfB Lübeck or draw	72%	70%	+2
VfB Lübeck clean sheet	27%	–	–
St. Pauli II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.5 5.4 4.0 1 7.6 11.2 6.8 3.0 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.6 3 4.3 5.4 3.5 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Lübeck down, St. Pauli II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,573 Regionalliga - Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Regionalliga - Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.6% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfB Lübeck at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). St. Pauli II away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for VfB Lübeck, 1.31 for St. Pauli II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STP 1–1 VFB · VFB 1–1 STP · VFB 2–0 STP · STP 1–3 VFB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Regionalliga - Nord this season · since 4 Sept

VFB LÜBECK

DDWWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

ST. PAULI II

LWWLLL2–3 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	+29	34
2	SV Drochtersen/Assel	14	+22	28
3	Hannover 96 II	13	+12	27
4	Phönix Lübeck	12	+24	26
5	VfB Oldenburg	12	+20	25
6	Schöningen	13	0	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	−1	19
8	Kickers Emden	13	−4	18
9	HSC Hannover	13	−8	16
10	VfB Lübeck	13	−6	15
11	Eimsbütteler TV	13	−14	14
12	Eintracht Norderstedt	12	−7	13
13	Hamburger SV II	12	−8	13
14	Werder Bremen II	12	−4	12
15	Todesfelde	13	−21	11
16	St. Pauli II	12	−2	10
17	SSV Jeddeloh	13	−15	10
18	Bremer SV	13	−17	8